* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982021 08/23/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 32 38 44 50 56 60 64 68 72 73 74 73 71 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 32 38 44 50 56 60 64 68 72 73 74 73 71 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 31 34 38 41 45 50 56 61 63 61 57 52 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 19 9 6 13 18 23 11 8 7 6 10 14 16 25 33 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 1 4 -3 -6 -8 -2 0 -3 -1 0 0 5 0 3 3 SHEAR DIR 69 65 43 47 78 70 79 101 89 123 146 243 271 283 290 271 271 SST (C) 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.9 27.9 27.6 27.1 26.9 27.0 26.5 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 129 129 129 128 127 126 129 129 130 132 133 131 126 124 125 119 115 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 129 129 128 127 126 127 124 123 122 124 125 122 120 120 112 107 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 -54.4 -54.3 -54.3 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 8 7 700-500 MB RH 77 76 77 76 73 72 65 65 62 65 63 61 57 56 57 55 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 45 57 56 63 58 49 34 -1 -10 -44 -43 -44 -44 -40 -34 -42 200 MB DIV 15 10 11 24 44 46 -2 -12 -37 -16 -24 -19 -12 10 0 18 -3 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 -4 -3 -5 -3 0 -3 -1 -2 1 5 7 8 11 14 LAND (KM) 697 796 872 939 997 1101 1206 1249 1295 1313 1372 1511 1724 1975 1883 1814 1791 LAT (DEG N) 7.4 7.3 7.4 7.6 7.9 8.9 10.3 11.7 12.7 13.4 13.8 13.9 14.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 20.9 22.1 23.1 24.0 24.8 26.3 27.7 28.6 29.3 29.6 30.2 31.5 33.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 9 8 10 9 7 5 3 5 8 11 12 11 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 7 8 8 8 6 4 6 7 8 11 12 8 9 11 13 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 15. 19. 23. 27. 29. 31. 33. 33. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 13. 19. 25. 31. 35. 39. 43. 47. 48. 49. 48. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 7.4 20.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982021 INVEST 08/23/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.57 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 49.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.89 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.68 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.64 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 12.8% 8.4% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.2% 17.4% 8.9% 1.6% 1.2% 4.7% 8.4% 27.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 10.9% 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% 1.1% 3.2% 7.4% Consensus: 3.0% 13.7% 6.1% 2.9% 0.4% 1.9% 6.5% 11.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982021 INVEST 08/23/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 30 32 38 44 50 56 60 64 68 72 73 74 73 71 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 29 35 41 47 53 57 61 65 69 70 71 70 68 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 30 36 42 48 52 56 60 64 65 66 65 63 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 23 29 35 41 45 49 53 57 58 59 58 56 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT