* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982021 07/11/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 40 42 37 32 26 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 40 42 37 32 26 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 38 38 35 32 29 27 27 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 30 35 41 41 44 38 40 47 36 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 -5 0 4 7 3 4 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 235 236 229 238 237 215 244 267 296 308 259 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 20.1 16.4 12.9 10.8 9.2 11.9 12.2 13.1 13.3 12.2 7.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 85 76 72 71 71 73 73 71 71 71 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 78 72 70 69 69 71 71 69 68 68 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -52.5 -52.5 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.8 -1.4 -0.6 -1.5 -1.2 -0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 53 54 52 53 50 50 55 62 62 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 9 9 11 9 9 9 6 10 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -38 -46 -46 -45 -49 -25 -43 -5 -5 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 6 36 38 29 24 40 5 18 28 -192 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -14 7 1 -20 18 -60 -13 19 28 21 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 333 304 215 145 411 1112 1134 557 223 165 -36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 42.0 43.5 44.9 46.3 47.8 50.8 53.8 55.9 57.3 59.3 63.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 61.2 58.2 54.8 51.3 47.3 37.9 27.3 18.0 9.8 2.1 -6.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 26 27 28 30 32 36 33 26 22 25 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 25 CX,CY: 19/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -13. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 1. -7. -17. -24. -30. -37. -45. -55. -62. -65. -66. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 2. -0. -1. -2. -6. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 2. -3. -9. -19. -22. -29. -34. -41. -50. -54. -54. -54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 42.0 61.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982021 INVEST 07/11/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 191.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.74 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982021 INVEST 07/11/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982021 INVEST 07/11/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 39 40 42 37 32 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 36 37 39 34 29 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 34 29 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT