* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL092021 08/30/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 30 28 27 26 29 30 32 32 34 34 35 34 30 25 21 23 V (KT) LAND 35 31 29 28 28 27 28 29 29 34 34 35 34 30 26 22 23 V (KT) LGEM 35 31 29 28 27 27 28 29 29 33 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 17 19 15 14 21 30 34 32 38 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 3 -1 2 0 6 4 4 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 267 261 264 270 275 250 245 240 243 257 269 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.6 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.1 29.7 29.4 29.0 24.2 23.7 22.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 168 168 170 172 166 161 153 99 96 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 153 141 141 143 146 142 136 125 84 82 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.7 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -52.0 -51.7 -51.3 -51.0 -51.3 -50.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.4 -0.2 0.5 0.7 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 4 2 6 1 3 0 2 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 68 65 65 65 56 48 45 41 40 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 23 22 19 16 16 17 17 20 24 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -24 -46 -34 0 16 62 83 116 111 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 105 119 77 43 50 14 17 3 43 3 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 21 15 6 17 -3 1 6 10 0 -37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -204 -293 -360 -407 -481 -542 -417 -171 -8 98 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.2 33.0 33.8 34.4 35.0 36.5 38.3 39.2 39.6 40.1 40.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 90.5 89.9 89.3 88.2 87.1 84.3 80.5 77.0 74.4 71.8 69.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 12 15 16 12 10 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 8 CX,CY: 2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. 23. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 4. -0. -5. -11. -17. -21. -25. -30. -34. -35. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -10. -10. -6. -4. -4. -4. -2. -2. -0. -0. -1. -5. -8. -8. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -12. -14. -11. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -7. -8. -9. -6. -5. -3. -3. -1. -1. 0. -1. -5. -10. -14. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 32.2 90.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092021 IDA 08/30/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -30.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.24 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.50 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.03 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 78.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.48 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.69 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.50 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 5.5% 4.6% 4.0% 3.2% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 2.2% 1.6% 1.4% 1.1% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092021 IDA 08/30/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092021 IDA 08/30/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 31 29 28 28 27 28 29 29 34 34 35 34 30 26 22 23 18HR AGO 35 34 32 31 31 30 31 32 32 37 37 38 37 33 29 25 26 12HR AGO 35 32 31 30 30 29 30 31 31 36 36 37 36 32 28 24 25 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 24 25 26 26 31 31 32 31 27 23 19 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT