* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL092021 08/30/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 27 22 21 21 29 31 31 31 34 34 35 35 30 22 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 34 31 29 28 27 27 28 29 36 36 36 37 32 23 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 34 31 29 28 27 27 28 29 32 33 32 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 15 16 18 16 19 24 31 32 41 39 39 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 7 1 -1 2 2 1 2 3 4 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 281 268 262 264 279 250 253 243 241 253 256 274 297 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 31.0 30.6 30.0 29.9 30.0 29.5 29.5 29.3 28.1 23.8 24.1 22.6 25.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 169 168 170 162 162 158 139 97 98 88 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 160 151 142 142 144 137 138 132 115 83 83 76 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -51.8 -51.6 -51.4 -51.9 -52.1 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.2 0.2 1.0 0.9 1.8 0.5 0.4 1.0 1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 8 7 4 2 4 1 3 1 1 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 71 69 66 66 62 51 45 41 42 42 37 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 23 23 22 20 18 16 15 16 16 20 20 24 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -45 -25 -34 -52 -32 11 41 65 91 113 111 85 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 88 87 70 30 36 28 27 12 1 -23 -11 -39 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 8 14 12 12 4 -1 -9 7 14 22 -14 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -136 -209 -291 -355 -419 -595 -539 -317 -90 93 135 197 326 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.5 32.3 33.0 33.8 34.5 35.9 37.5 38.7 39.3 39.9 40.4 40.6 40.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 90.8 90.5 90.2 89.3 88.4 85.9 82.6 79.1 75.9 72.9 70.2 68.1 66.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 11 11 14 15 14 12 12 9 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 0 0 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 725 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 13. 16. 18. 19. 18. 17. 17. 16. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. -1. -5. -10. -16. -21. -27. -32. -36. -37. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -13. -19. -21. -19. -11. -7. -7. -8. -3. -3. 0. 0. -3. -9. -16. -15. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -12. -15. -16. -17. -14. -14. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -13. -18. -19. -19. -11. -9. -9. -9. -6. -6. -5. -5. -10. -18. -26. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 31.5 90.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092021 IDA 08/30/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -65.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.49 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 118.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.23 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.67 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.43 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 4.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092021 IDA 08/30/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092021 IDA 08/30/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 34 31 29 28 27 27 28 29 36 36 36 37 32 23 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 36 34 33 32 32 33 34 41 41 41 42 37 28 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 34 33 32 32 33 34 41 41 41 42 37 28 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 28 28 29 30 37 37 37 38 33 24 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT