* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL092021 08/30/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 53 50 49 50 53 52 49 52 51 48 52 50 45 38 33 33 V (KT) LAND 65 49 39 34 31 28 27 28 29 32 28 33 31 26 19 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 48 38 33 30 28 27 28 29 32 32 34 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 19 18 16 18 17 25 31 37 35 36 29 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 6 0 3 -2 4 1 0 3 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 283 284 274 266 268 269 252 243 237 213 213 236 272 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 31.1 31.3 31.2 30.4 30.3 30.4 29.7 29.2 29.0 24.4 24.9 24.4 21.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 171 171 172 172 166 157 153 101 104 100 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 163 166 164 150 149 152 141 134 127 86 87 84 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -51.9 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 -0.3 0.6 0.5 1.0 2.7 2.2 0.9 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 8 8 4 6 2 4 0 2 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 71 70 68 65 62 52 46 44 42 44 47 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 22 21 20 18 16 15 17 15 14 17 20 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -54 -39 -20 -30 -52 12 10 61 53 94 91 88 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 43 71 89 60 40 33 10 16 37 8 -25 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 7 5 13 12 12 -4 -3 9 -19 -58 -7 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -60 -117 -194 -281 -353 -511 -551 -430 -174 32 139 188 274 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.6 31.4 32.1 32.9 33.7 35.3 36.6 38.1 39.3 39.8 39.9 40.2 41.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 90.8 90.7 90.6 90.0 89.4 87.3 84.3 80.7 77.0 73.8 71.2 68.9 66.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 11 13 15 16 14 11 10 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 7 7 5 5 5 5 4 4 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 7 CX,CY: -1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 2. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -19. -22. -24. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -12. -16. -16. -14. -8. -6. -6. -6. -2. 1. 4. 3. -1. -6. -10. -9. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -14. -18. -20. -17. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -12. -15. -16. -15. -12. -13. -16. -13. -14. -17. -13. -15. -20. -27. -32. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 30.6 90.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092021 IDA 08/30/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -60.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.40 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.95 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 200.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.73 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.23 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.55 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.39 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 7.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092021 IDA 08/30/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092021 IDA 08/30/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 49 39 34 31 28 27 28 29 32 28 33 31 26 19 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 54 49 46 43 42 43 44 47 43 48 46 41 34 15 15 12HR AGO 65 62 61 56 53 50 49 50 51 54 50 55 53 48 41 22 22 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 52 49 48 49 50 53 49 54 52 47 40 21 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT