* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL092021 08/30/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 99 97 96 94 87 79 71 66 59 49 47 43 42 41 40 37 V (KT) LAND 105 73 53 42 35 29 28 28 29 29 30 30 26 26 24 23 20 V (KT) LGEM 105 73 52 41 34 29 27 28 29 29 30 32 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 26 21 17 17 13 18 26 40 46 50 52 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -4 0 7 0 1 1 0 0 1 2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 280 279 278 269 263 276 254 253 238 222 216 226 245 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.2 31.2 31.4 31.0 30.3 30.4 29.5 29.4 28.9 24.4 22.0 18.2 16.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 171 171 171 172 162 161 153 103 88 74 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 149 167 169 160 147 151 138 137 130 89 77 68 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -52.6 -52.5 -52.1 -52.6 -52.4 -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 1.0 0.8 1.4 1.9 0.8 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 5 8 7 2 3 1 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 67 71 72 68 67 62 54 47 48 53 53 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 24 23 21 21 18 16 15 15 14 12 14 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -63 -47 -23 -27 -22 6 39 39 80 125 112 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 5 17 79 97 40 42 14 7 0 12 -11 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 13 11 3 4 12 10 9 -7 -13 -29 -86 -78 -73 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -29 -65 -150 -226 -314 -452 -624 -537 -293 -27 -2 134 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.9 30.8 31.6 32.4 33.2 34.8 36.4 37.8 39.4 40.7 41.9 43.1 44.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 90.6 90.8 90.9 90.5 90.1 88.4 85.8 82.4 78.4 74.4 70.6 67.9 66.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 9 9 12 14 16 17 16 13 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 6. 3. -2. -9. -14. -21. -29. -37. -44. -48. -50. -51. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -9. -10. -11. -10. -10. -11. -12. -13. -16. -17. -16. -16. -17. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -5. -6. -5. -4. -2. -2. -3. -1. 0. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -3. -4. -8. -12. -16. -18. -20. -25. -23. -21. -21. -20. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -8. -9. -11. -18. -26. -34. -39. -46. -55. -58. -62. -63. -64. -65. -68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 29.9 90.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092021 IDA 08/30/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.30 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.39 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.05 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.92 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.42 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 212.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.72 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.37 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.21 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.35 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 1% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 8.0% 3.1% 2.1% 1.1% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 1.2% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 6.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 3.1% 1.3% 1.0% 0.5% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092021 IDA 08/30/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092021 IDA 08/30/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 73 53 42 35 29 28 28 29 29 30 30 26 26 24 23 20 18HR AGO 105 104 84 73 66 60 59 59 60 60 61 61 57 57 55 54 51 12HR AGO 105 102 101 90 83 77 76 76 77 77 78 78 74 74 72 71 68 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 88 82 81 81 82 82 83 83 79 79 77 76 73 NOW 105 96 90 87 86 80 79 79 80 80 81 81 77 77 75 74 71 IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT