* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL092021 08/29/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 125 121 117 113 102 91 81 76 71 63 61 54 57 58 56 53 V (KT) LAND 125 97 68 50 40 31 28 27 28 29 29 31 25 28 29 29 30 V (KT) LGEM 125 97 68 49 39 30 28 27 28 29 30 33 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 18 27 17 16 17 17 29 34 42 53 53 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 -2 3 0 2 -1 8 2 7 11 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 289 280 280 278 261 271 261 266 247 239 227 231 213 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 30.3 31.3 31.4 31.2 30.3 30.4 29.7 29.3 28.3 22.8 20.1 17.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 167 171 171 171 171 172 173 166 159 143 93 81 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 145 150 168 169 164 149 151 141 136 122 82 73 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -51.4 -50.4 -50.5 -50.8 -50.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.7 1.1 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.4 -0.2 0.6 1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 6 5 8 4 5 1 3 0 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 69 68 72 73 66 66 59 47 45 46 51 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 26 24 24 22 20 17 15 17 19 20 24 24 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -29 -64 -56 -28 -61 9 25 53 64 138 170 174 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 34 5 7 77 32 56 25 39 31 30 27 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 19 13 7 7 15 16 2 6 23 26 70 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -1 -22 -80 -146 -229 -388 -556 -597 -415 -159 -13 150 -36 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.2 30.0 30.8 31.6 32.4 34.0 35.7 37.1 38.5 39.9 41.1 42.6 44.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 90.3 90.6 90.9 90.8 90.7 89.5 87.2 84.3 80.4 76.3 72.1 68.5 65.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 9 11 13 15 17 17 16 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 42 11 7 7 7 5 5 5 4 3 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 2. 3. 3. -1. -9. -20. -28. -37. -47. -56. -65. -69. -71. -72. -72. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -7. -11. -13. -15. -14. -12. -11. -10. -9. -11. -12. -8. -6. -7. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -12. -16. -16. -14. -14. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -4. -8. -12. -23. -34. -44. -49. -54. -62. -64. -71. -68. -67. -69. -72. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 29.2 90.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092021 IDA 08/29/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.45 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.87 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.16 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 179.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.75 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.33 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.05 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 10.8% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.8% 5.5% 3.3% 2.5% 1.3% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 8.3% 1.5% 0.4% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.5% 5.9% 3.9% 1.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 88.0% 82.0% 91.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092021 IDA 08/29/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092021 IDA 08/29/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 125 97 68 50 40 31 28 27 28 29 29 31 25 28 29 29 30 18HR AGO 125 124 95 77 67 58 55 54 55 56 56 58 52 55 56 56 57 12HR AGO 125 122 121 103 93 84 81 80 81 82 82 84 78 81 82 82 83 6HR AGO 125 119 116 115 105 96 93 92 93 94 94 96 90 93 94 94 95 NOW 125 116 110 107 106 97 94 93 94 95 95 97 91 94 95 95 96 IN 6HR 125 97 88 82 79 75 72 71 72 73 73 75 69 72 73 73 74 IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT