* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL092021 08/29/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 120 121 119 115 106 97 90 81 77 73 73 76 79 80 79 76 V (KT) LAND 115 120 106 84 61 38 30 28 27 28 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 V (KT) LGEM 115 122 123 88 63 38 30 28 27 28 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 12 9 17 19 16 15 15 32 36 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 0 0 4 0 5 4 0 5 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 312 334 291 279 288 259 261 266 259 246 245 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.2 30.3 30.2 30.6 31.5 31.7 30.6 30.6 29.7 29.2 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 172 172 171 171 171 171 171 172 165 156 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 156 155 150 155 171 171 153 154 139 130 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -51.8 -52.2 -52.5 -52.1 -52.0 -51.6 -51.0 -50.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.4 0.6 0.9 -0.1 0.7 0.4 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 6 8 3 5 1 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 70 71 70 69 72 68 70 55 43 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 27 26 26 26 23 20 17 16 18 19 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -37 -19 -24 -58 -34 -48 32 18 66 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 18 19 29 33 8 78 46 61 13 27 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 0 0 10 12 7 23 29 0 0 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 166 79 -1 -44 -98 -233 -403 -540 -647 -545 -347 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.6 28.4 29.2 29.9 30.6 32.3 34.0 35.6 37.0 38.1 39.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 88.7 89.5 90.3 90.8 91.3 91.2 90.1 88.2 85.4 82.3 79.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 9 8 8 9 10 12 14 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 116 52 41 23 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 13 CX,CY: -8/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 2. -4. -11. -17. -23. -29. -30. -32. -35. -37. -38. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -8. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 2. 3. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. -3. -1. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -3. -7. -12. -15. -14. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 6. 4. -0. -9. -18. -25. -34. -38. -42. -42. -39. -36. -35. -36. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 27.6 88.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092021 IDA 08/29/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.90 9.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.62 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.31 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.89 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.29 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 295.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.63 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.43 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.12 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 35% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 34.7% 28.0% 23.8% 16.5% 8.1% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 25.5% 23.5% 16.9% 9.8% 4.5% 4.5% 2.9% 0.1% Bayesian: 45.7% 18.0% 9.1% 30.4% 3.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 35.3% 23.2% 16.6% 18.9% 5.4% 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 7.0% 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092021 IDA 08/29/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092021 IDA 08/29/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 0( 31) 0( 31) 0( 31) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 34 0( 34) 0( 34) 0( 34) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 120 106 84 61 38 30 28 27 28 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 18HR AGO 115 114 100 78 55 32 24 22 21 22 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 12HR AGO 115 112 111 89 66 43 35 33 32 33 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 82 59 51 49 48 49 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 NOW 115 106 100 97 96 73 65 63 62 63 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 IN 6HR 115 120 111 105 102 93 85 83 82 83 84 84 84 84 84 84 84 IN 12HR 115 120 106 97 91 87 79 77 76 77 78 78 78 78 78 78 78