* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL092021 08/28/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 97 101 104 107 104 101 93 86 77 70 63 60 66 65 65 63 V (KT) LAND 90 97 101 104 107 62 38 30 28 27 27 28 28 29 29 29 29 V (KT) LGEM 90 99 106 109 109 65 38 30 28 27 27 28 28 29 29 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP EXTP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 10 12 13 13 18 14 17 19 32 36 39 26 24 32 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 1 6 2 -3 3 1 4 3 -1 2 -3 -2 0 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 280 296 303 318 297 288 253 266 262 263 262 265 245 313 346 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.1 30.4 30.2 30.3 30.2 31.4 31.7 30.6 30.6 29.5 29.7 29.0 29.2 29.4 26.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 173 173 172 171 171 171 171 171 171 161 165 152 155 157 116 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 161 165 156 154 150 171 171 153 151 134 136 124 125 125 94 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -51.8 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -51.7 -51.1 -50.9 -51.9 -53.3 -54.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.7 0.9 0.6 -0.1 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 7 8 5 7 4 6 1 5 0 2 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 68 67 72 72 68 72 67 68 54 40 36 30 34 45 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 24 25 27 23 21 19 18 16 16 14 12 16 17 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 0 -24 -34 -19 -55 -36 -61 28 21 66 58 36 -11 -40 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 48 40 5 24 38 26 84 50 47 22 7 -5 -45 -66 -61 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 10 15 4 5 17 6 16 13 0 -1 0 -11 -27 -4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 425 312 175 96 13 -82 -222 -380 -534 -675 -593 -430 -264 -141 -51 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.6 26.6 27.5 28.3 29.0 30.4 32.2 33.8 35.5 36.7 37.4 37.9 38.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 86.6 87.7 88.8 89.5 90.3 91.2 91.2 90.3 88.8 86.6 83.6 80.9 78.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 12 10 9 8 9 10 10 12 12 10 9 8 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 76 139 127 57 41 7 7 6 6 4 4 4 4 4 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 14 CX,CY: -8/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -11. -15. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. -1. -2. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. -1. -4. -8. -11. -14. -16. -19. -23. -17. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 6. 3. 1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 11. 14. 17. 14. 11. 3. -4. -13. -20. -27. -30. -23. -25. -25. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 25.6 86.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092021 IDA 08/28/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 14.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.70 5.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 88.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.58 4.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.84 7.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 212.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.72 4.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.45 2.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.33 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 52% is 10.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 56% is 5.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 10.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 12.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 52.3% 56.1% 45.6% 39.1% 29.9% 20.6% 12.2% 0.0% Logistic: 26.0% 42.2% 32.2% 17.4% 8.8% 12.1% 9.3% 1.2% Bayesian: 26.0% 55.7% 25.6% 53.5% 15.3% 5.7% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 34.8% 51.4% 34.4% 36.7% 18.0% 12.8% 7.2% 0.4% DTOPS: 46.0% 21.0% 19.0% 15.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092021 IDA 08/28/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092021 IDA 08/28/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 23( 32) 27( 51) 0( 51) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 32 19( 45) 18( 55) 0( 55) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 97 101 104 107 62 38 30 28 27 27 28 28 29 29 29 29 18HR AGO 90 89 93 96 99 54 30 22 20 19 19 20 20 21 21 21 21 12HR AGO 90 87 86 89 92 47 23 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 83 38 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 97 88 82 79 57 33 25 23 22 22 23 23 24 24 24 24 IN 12HR 90 97 101 92 86 82 58 50 48 47 47 48 48 49 49 49 49