* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL092021 08/28/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 81 87 90 95 104 104 99 93 85 77 70 64 69 71 70 69 V (KT) LAND 75 81 87 90 95 88 51 35 29 27 27 27 28 28 32 31 29 V (KT) LGEM 75 80 85 92 97 90 52 34 29 27 27 27 28 28 29 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 6 9 12 10 13 12 17 15 20 28 35 26 24 29 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 0 5 2 -2 1 6 -2 3 0 1 -3 -5 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 269 272 295 303 310 273 268 252 265 247 260 264 268 242 305 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 30.0 30.3 30.2 30.1 30.3 31.6 31.6 30.6 30.6 29.6 29.7 29.1 29.1 25.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 167 171 172 172 172 171 170 171 171 172 162 164 154 155 114 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 156 158 161 157 152 150 170 171 152 152 134 133 127 131 98 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -51.6 -50.8 -51.3 -52.3 -54.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.8 1.4 1.5 1.0 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 7 7 4 7 3 5 1 3 0 1 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 68 69 67 71 70 73 71 70 69 54 39 31 36 47 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 24 22 24 27 25 22 21 19 18 17 14 18 21 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 23 5 -13 -22 -19 -45 -25 -20 35 47 67 37 -22 -25 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 48 45 5 33 43 5 111 9 40 40 -8 -68 -20 -41 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 3 7 12 4 9 6 11 16 13 -1 0 -14 -7 -7 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 264 407 343 230 148 -11 -104 -220 -399 -518 -617 -565 -439 -227 14 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.4 25.3 26.2 27.0 27.8 29.3 30.8 32.3 34.0 35.4 36.4 37.2 37.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 85.7 86.8 87.8 88.7 89.7 90.9 91.2 90.8 89.8 88.0 85.7 83.4 81.2 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 12 11 8 7 9 9 10 10 9 12 15 17 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 108 99 142 154 77 45 7 7 6 6 4 4 3 4 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 14 CX,CY: -9/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 704 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 47.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 6. 7. 6. 5. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 1. 2. 5. 4. 0. -1. -5. -7. -10. -14. -10. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 14. 10. 5. 1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 15. 20. 29. 29. 24. 18. 10. 2. -5. -11. -6. -4. -5. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 24.4 85.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092021 IDA 08/28/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 11.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.74 5.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 116.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.76 5.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 6.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.82 5.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 257.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.67 4.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.50 2.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.45 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 40% is 8.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 56% is 5.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 10.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 14.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 29% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 40.4% 55.6% 43.7% 39.0% 35.9% 28.7% 19.3% 14.4% Logistic: 14.6% 33.7% 23.6% 10.3% 6.2% 14.6% 9.5% 3.6% Bayesian: 4.6% 28.7% 8.4% 9.5% 1.5% 7.3% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 19.9% 39.3% 25.2% 19.6% 14.5% 16.8% 9.7% 6.0% DTOPS: 56.0% 50.0% 28.0% 16.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092021 IDA 08/28/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092021 IDA 08/28/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 10( 15) 17( 29) 0( 29) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 7 16( 22) 2( 23) 0( 23) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 81 87 90 95 88 51 35 29 27 27 27 28 28 32 31 29 18HR AGO 75 74 80 83 88 81 44 28 22 20 20 20 21 21 25 24 22 12HR AGO 75 72 71 74 79 72 35 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 70 63 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 75 81 87 78 72 68 31 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS