* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL092021 08/28/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 74 81 86 90 104 107 104 96 87 80 73 69 73 75 73 72 V (KT) LAND 70 74 81 86 90 104 75 43 32 28 27 27 27 28 29 29 29 V (KT) LGEM 70 73 77 83 91 104 78 44 32 28 27 27 27 28 29 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 11 6 5 14 8 19 11 15 11 24 28 32 25 27 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -6 -5 0 4 -3 0 2 2 6 -1 3 -1 -5 9 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 252 258 248 281 308 285 283 240 273 242 258 263 263 261 295 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.9 30.2 30.2 30.6 31.3 31.9 31.2 30.9 30.8 29.6 29.5 29.2 28.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 169 167 169 173 172 171 170 171 171 171 171 162 161 155 147 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 158 155 155 160 158 157 168 171 162 156 154 134 132 126 120 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -51.1 -50.9 -51.6 -53.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.3 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.5 1.1 1.2 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 8 7 8 5 7 4 7 2 6 1 2 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 65 67 68 67 72 68 71 66 70 59 44 32 32 37 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 22 22 22 29 28 27 23 20 18 16 16 21 25 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 17 19 8 -10 -6 -42 -15 -55 28 13 71 36 36 6 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 24 35 37 26 2 56 26 71 56 34 24 9 -20 -34 -61 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 3 6 10 4 17 12 18 12 3 -2 -24 -15 -38 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 123 262 402 351 228 72 -43 -145 -292 -411 -521 -585 -526 -404 -262 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.5 24.4 25.2 26.1 27.0 28.5 29.9 31.5 33.0 34.3 35.4 36.4 37.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 84.7 85.8 86.8 87.8 88.9 90.5 91.2 91.0 90.4 89.2 87.4 85.2 82.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 13 12 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 11 10 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 124 97 103 147 140 44 16 7 6 6 6 4 4 4 3 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 13 CX,CY: -8/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 56.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 4. 2. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 7. 7. 6. 1. -4. -7. -10. -11. -5. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 18. 17. 12. 6. 1. -3. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 11. 17. 20. 34. 37. 34. 26. 17. 10. 3. -1. 3. 5. 3. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 23.5 84.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092021 IDA 08/28/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 7.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.75 4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 122.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.81 4.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 4.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 248.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.68 3.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.50 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 4.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 7.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 12.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 26.1% 46.4% 32.2% 31.3% 28.9% 24.5% 17.4% 15.3% Logistic: 8.8% 24.2% 17.3% 8.5% 4.7% 9.3% 8.1% 3.8% Bayesian: 1.5% 9.2% 2.4% 1.8% 0.4% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 12.1% 26.6% 17.3% 13.9% 11.3% 11.8% 8.5% 6.4% DTOPS: 54.0% 88.0% 70.0% 51.0% 23.0% 69.0% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092021 IDA 08/28/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092021 IDA 08/28/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 8( 12) 12( 22) 26( 42) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 3 6( 9) 1( 10) 4( 13) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 74 81 86 90 104 75 43 32 28 27 27 27 28 29 29 29 18HR AGO 70 69 76 81 85 99 70 38 27 23 22 22 22 23 24 24 24 12HR AGO 70 67 66 71 75 89 60 28 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 64 78 49 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT