* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL092021 08/28/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 78 86 94 101 109 116 110 103 93 81 74 70 71 73 71 70 V (KT) LAND 70 83 91 99 107 114 106 60 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 70 81 88 96 103 115 121 61 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 8 10 8 9 15 11 14 15 14 20 30 35 28 26 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 -4 -6 -3 -2 -1 0 5 -1 5 0 1 -3 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 208 243 265 267 271 322 268 270 261 265 247 265 271 266 272 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.2 30.2 30.8 31.9 31.8 30.9 30.9 30.1 29.6 29.5 29.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 167 169 169 171 172 172 171 170 171 171 171 171 162 161 162 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 158 159 157 158 160 154 160 170 171 156 154 139 134 136 137 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -52.1 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -51.1 -50.4 -50.7 -52.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.4 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.3 0.9 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 9 8 7 7 4 6 3 5 2 5 0 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 64 65 67 68 71 71 73 71 68 67 50 35 27 28 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 20 21 23 25 28 26 24 23 19 19 20 23 25 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 22 12 14 9 -18 -11 -39 -15 -13 52 72 56 47 27 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 60 34 37 51 40 29 32 45 96 25 44 16 -11 -17 2 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 2 1 0 3 0 8 13 12 19 11 -7 -15 -31 -14 N/A N/A LAND (KM) -31 105 249 392 357 145 -6 -82 -193 -351 -463 -564 -516 -370 -119 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.5 23.4 24.3 25.2 26.1 27.8 29.2 30.7 32.1 33.6 34.9 35.7 36.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 83.5 84.6 85.6 86.6 87.7 89.6 90.8 91.0 90.5 89.6 88.4 86.7 84.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 10 8 7 8 8 8 8 10 13 14 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 91 123 93 108 145 77 44 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 13 CX,CY: -7/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 71.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 5. 3. 0. -5. -7. -6. -3. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 6. 11. 17. 24. 23. 16. 8. 2. -5. -10. -14. -17. -17. -19. -18. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 16. 24. 31. 39. 46. 40. 33. 23. 11. 4. 0. 1. 3. 1. -0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 22.5 83.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092021 IDA 08/28/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 17.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.75 7.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 112.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.74 6.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 7.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 7.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 226.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.70 6.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 3.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.51 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.34 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 46% is 9.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 70% is 6.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 61% is 8.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 54% is 13.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 18.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 48% is 10.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 36% is 7.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 46.0% 70.2% 60.8% 53.8% 44.9% 47.9% 35.7% 25.0% Logistic: 31.5% 53.9% 47.6% 29.2% 12.0% 17.9% 15.2% 10.8% Bayesian: 21.2% 56.4% 41.2% 37.0% 21.5% 17.8% 1.2% 0.1% Consensus: 32.9% 60.2% 49.8% 40.0% 26.1% 27.8% 17.4% 12.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092021 IDA 08/28/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092021 IDA 08/28/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 12( 12) 27( 36) 30( 55) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 10( 10) 26( 33) 3( 35) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 83 91 99 107 114 106 60 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 70 69 77 85 93 100 92 46 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 74 82 89 81 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 68 75 67 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR 70 83 74 68 65 68 60 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 70 83 91 82 76 72 64 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS