* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL092021 08/27/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 80 89 98 106 112 121 115 111 97 84 74 66 61 58 57 55 V (KT) LAND 70 67 83 92 100 107 116 77 44 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 70 70 85 94 102 120 127 87 47 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 11 8 7 17 9 16 11 19 12 25 20 24 12 18 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 0 -3 -5 1 -5 5 1 1 3 0 3 -3 0 2 0 SHEAR DIR 216 202 233 249 245 288 263 268 267 267 263 262 257 280 277 319 348 SST (C) 29.5 29.7 29.9 29.8 30.0 30.2 30.7 31.3 32.0 31.6 30.9 30.8 29.9 29.6 29.5 28.9 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 162 165 169 167 171 172 171 170 170 171 171 170 167 162 160 150 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 156 159 155 157 157 159 167 170 171 156 151 136 133 132 123 127 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.1 -51.9 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -51.5 -51.8 -51.5 -51.0 -51.1 -52.1 -53.5 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.3 1.7 1.5 0.9 0.7 1.1 1.6 1.1 1.3 0.2 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.4 0.7 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 5 7 4 7 2 5 1 3 0 1 700-500 MB RH 64 66 66 65 67 69 73 69 74 67 70 55 47 37 33 39 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 18 19 21 23 29 27 27 24 20 18 14 12 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 47 37 26 14 14 -9 -8 -39 -7 -43 34 14 63 31 45 17 16 200 MB DIV 86 48 49 57 26 7 41 41 79 56 51 24 10 -39 -32 -54 -35 700-850 TADV 8 7 0 2 4 13 6 10 16 15 9 0 -3 -5 0 -10 -8 LAND (KM) 98 -18 126 268 410 217 62 -43 -159 -277 -422 -506 -563 -461 -334 -200 -32 LAT (DEG N) 21.6 22.5 23.4 24.4 25.3 27.1 28.6 29.9 31.3 32.8 34.3 35.3 35.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 82.7 83.8 84.9 85.8 86.8 88.9 90.5 91.2 91.5 90.9 89.6 88.0 86.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 13 13 12 8 7 8 8 9 8 8 9 10 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 71 92 122 97 105 133 42 16 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 14 CX,CY: -7/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 75.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 13. 13. 13. 11. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 10. 8. 10. 5. -1. -5. -11. -14. -18. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 3. 7. 12. 18. 26. 25. 17. 9. 2. -5. -10. -15. -18. -18. -20. -20. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 10. 19. 28. 36. 42. 51. 45. 41. 27. 14. 4. -4. -9. -12. -13. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 21.6 82.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092021 IDA 08/27/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.90 24.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.72 8.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 97.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.64 7.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.94 11.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 8.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 226.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.70 7.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.38 2.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.49 2.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.38 1.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.92 0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 61% is 12.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 82% is 7.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 76% is 11.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 70% is 17.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 22.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 73% is 15.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 47% is 10.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 60.9% 81.8% 75.7% 69.8% 53.4% 72.6% 47.1% 31.2% Logistic: 53.3% 69.9% 64.4% 59.7% 31.5% 47.3% 36.0% 20.0% Bayesian: 48.5% 60.6% 61.0% 61.6% 37.4% 20.8% 0.7% 0.0% Consensus: 54.2% 70.7% 67.0% 63.7% 40.7% 46.9% 28.0% 17.1% DTOPS: 27.0% 88.0% 77.0% 65.0% 28.0% 69.0% 70.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092021 IDA 08/27/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092021 IDA 08/27/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 9( 13) 22( 32) 27( 50) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 14( 16) 40( 49) 3( 51) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 67 83 92 100 107 116 77 44 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 70 69 85 94 102 109 118 79 46 34 30 29 29 29 29 29 29 12HR AGO 70 67 66 75 83 90 99 60 27 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 68 75 84 45 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 70 67 83 74 68 64 73 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS