* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL092021 08/27/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 56 62 67 71 81 90 95 97 90 82 75 70 65 60 59 54 V (KT) LAND 50 56 62 64 69 78 88 92 51 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 50 55 60 62 68 82 95 102 56 36 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 11 10 6 5 15 13 14 16 14 18 17 28 18 21 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 1 0 -1 0 0 0 0 6 0 3 -1 0 0 -2 2 SHEAR DIR 244 216 201 237 248 276 309 265 283 242 273 234 238 238 250 253 303 SST (C) 29.1 29.3 29.7 29.8 29.8 30.2 30.2 30.8 31.8 31.9 30.9 30.9 30.7 29.4 29.5 29.5 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 155 158 165 167 167 172 172 170 170 171 170 170 170 158 160 159 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 151 156 156 156 159 154 159 170 171 155 152 149 130 132 129 121 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -51.8 -51.9 -51.5 -52.1 -51.3 -51.7 -51.6 -51.3 -51.0 -51.1 -51.8 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.5 0.8 0.7 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.4 0.3 0.6 1.4 1.3 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 7 4 7 3 5 1 4 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 64 66 68 67 65 70 72 73 73 70 68 69 60 49 43 41 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 20 20 20 24 28 29 31 27 24 20 18 15 13 11 7 850 MB ENV VOR 45 47 40 31 16 7 -19 -17 -35 -9 -21 36 62 78 67 60 40 200 MB DIV 66 64 52 43 54 22 33 44 22 105 17 62 25 26 -6 -23 -41 700-850 TADV 4 6 6 0 3 6 1 6 7 14 17 8 -5 -8 -11 -15 -4 LAND (KM) 195 125 0 95 237 367 151 10 -80 -188 -349 -420 -481 -490 -347 -237 -154 LAT (DEG N) 20.3 21.3 22.2 23.2 24.1 26.0 27.7 29.2 30.5 32.0 33.5 34.5 35.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 81.7 82.8 83.8 84.7 85.7 87.7 89.4 90.5 91.1 90.8 89.8 88.5 87.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 13 13 13 12 10 8 7 8 8 7 7 9 9 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 62 66 88 114 100 140 87 42 7 7 6 6 6 4 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 44.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 21. 24. 27. 28. 28. 28. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. -0. -2. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 10. 12. 14. 9. 4. -2. -6. -10. -13. -15. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 9. 14. 13. 9. 5. 1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 17. 21. 31. 40. 45. 47. 40. 32. 25. 20. 15. 10. 9. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 20.3 81.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092021 IDA 08/27/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 7.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.75 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 86.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.57 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 178.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.75 3.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.23 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.63 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.40 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.85 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 3.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 40% is 8.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 41% is 7.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.6% 34.2% 23.9% 14.7% 8.3% 26.3% 40.3% 41.2% Logistic: 6.2% 23.6% 12.9% 7.9% 2.9% 16.8% 18.7% 18.8% Bayesian: 8.0% 8.8% 2.4% 1.0% 0.1% 7.2% 4.1% 0.4% Consensus: 7.6% 22.2% 13.1% 7.9% 3.8% 16.7% 21.0% 20.2% DTOPS: 12.0% 54.0% 28.0% 18.0% 10.0% 48.0% 57.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092021 IDA 08/27/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092021 IDA 08/27/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 6( 9) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 56 62 64 69 78 88 92 51 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 50 49 55 57 62 71 81 85 44 28 22 21 20 20 20 20 20 12HR AGO 50 47 46 48 53 62 72 76 35 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 45 54 64 68 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT