* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL092021 08/27/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 51 57 63 73 78 90 86 85 76 71 67 63 59 57 55 V (KT) LAND 40 45 51 50 60 70 75 86 57 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 45 49 54 56 67 77 88 60 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 10 10 10 4 15 10 18 12 21 13 21 27 30 20 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 2 3 1 -4 3 -6 5 2 5 4 -1 0 -2 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 247 238 197 188 230 178 289 286 279 256 271 254 250 234 257 246 289 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.2 29.6 29.7 29.8 30.3 30.8 31.9 32.0 31.4 31.0 30.9 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 156 163 165 167 172 171 171 170 170 170 171 162 160 156 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 146 148 154 155 154 159 162 171 170 163 156 156 135 130 123 120 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -51.2 -51.4 -52.3 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.4 1.7 0.9 0.6 1.4 1.4 0.8 1.3 0.2 0.6 0.6 1.1 1.2 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 7 5 7 4 6 1 4 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 63 64 65 67 66 68 68 71 68 70 62 68 61 48 35 34 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 17 19 20 23 23 30 27 27 24 21 18 16 14 11 8 850 MB ENV VOR 55 44 50 44 26 15 -11 -18 -60 -21 -51 47 38 96 62 54 0 200 MB DIV 77 65 75 59 30 62 -19 41 28 76 87 56 17 -10 -9 -70 -71 700-850 TADV 9 11 9 7 3 1 12 2 15 8 13 12 2 -14 -8 -4 -6 LAND (KM) 266 188 112 -11 105 408 230 50 -44 -174 -304 -398 -441 -513 -389 -320 -272 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 20.4 21.3 22.3 23.3 25.2 27.0 28.7 30.3 31.8 33.1 34.1 34.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 80.9 81.9 82.9 83.8 84.7 86.9 88.8 90.0 90.8 91.0 90.6 89.5 87.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 14 13 11 9 8 7 6 7 9 10 8 4 2 HEAT CONTENT 58 67 68 86 118 100 122 43 7 7 6 6 6 4 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 44.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 25. 29. 33. 36. 36. 36. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. -2. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 16. 12. 13. 7. 3. -2. -5. -8. -12. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 10. 14. 13. 9. 5. 1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 18. 23. 33. 38. 50. 46. 45. 36. 31. 27. 23. 19. 17. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 19.5 80.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092021 IDA 08/27/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.70 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 79.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.52 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 150.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.21 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.69 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.42 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.79 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 28% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 43% is 8.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 22.7% 12.0% 9.6% 7.2% 14.5% 28.0% 43.5% Logistic: 8.1% 33.2% 22.3% 21.8% 7.9% 26.7% 18.4% 33.3% Bayesian: 3.9% 2.2% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 4.6% 5.0% 1.1% Consensus: 6.1% 19.4% 11.8% 10.7% 5.1% 15.2% 17.1% 26.0% DTOPS: 5.0% 27.0% 10.0% 6.0% 2.0% 29.0% 32.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092021 IDA 08/27/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092021 IDA 08/27/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 4( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 45 51 50 60 70 75 86 57 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 40 39 45 44 54 64 69 80 51 30 24 22 21 21 21 21 21 12HR AGO 40 37 36 35 45 55 60 71 42 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 40 50 55 66 37 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT