* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL092021 08/27/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 47 52 57 65 76 82 77 74 72 69 69 66 68 64 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 47 52 56 64 75 81 48 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 40 43 46 51 59 69 77 48 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 13 11 12 7 6 11 10 16 16 14 14 16 43 39 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 2 1 0 2 -2 3 -1 4 -3 5 0 3 0 5 SHEAR DIR 218 251 247 219 195 211 221 319 260 277 254 258 235 258 251 252 243 SST (C) 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.5 29.6 30.1 30.3 31.0 32.0 32.0 31.2 31.0 30.9 29.5 29.4 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 149 153 153 154 162 164 172 172 171 170 170 170 171 171 160 158 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 148 146 146 153 153 157 157 166 170 170 161 156 155 133 131 125 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.2 -53.0 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -51.4 -51.0 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 6 7 4 7 2 6 1 4 0 1 700-500 MB RH 67 64 65 68 70 67 69 69 69 71 69 67 63 52 42 33 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 15 17 19 19 21 26 27 24 21 20 16 15 14 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR 72 57 43 46 47 8 2 -13 -16 -42 -26 -40 55 68 76 84 100 200 MB DIV 106 74 37 30 40 49 1 34 63 8 85 14 50 21 -26 -15 -17 700-850 TADV 7 10 10 9 10 -2 10 1 10 3 3 4 16 5 -20 -57 -64 LAND (KM) 191 300 221 142 22 242 378 198 18 -93 -188 -314 -451 -507 -504 -377 -292 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 19.1 20.1 21.1 22.0 24.0 25.8 27.3 29.1 30.6 31.9 33.2 34.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 80.1 81.0 81.9 82.8 83.7 85.9 88.0 89.6 91.1 91.5 91.1 90.4 89.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 13 13 13 14 12 11 9 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 48 55 66 66 81 92 128 70 46 7 7 6 6 6 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 500 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 31. 35. 39. 40. 41. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. -4. -8. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 5. 12. 13. 9. 5. 3. -4. -6. -7. -4. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 22. 30. 41. 47. 42. 39. 37. 34. 34. 31. 33. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.0 80.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092021 IDA 08/27/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.66 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 63.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.42 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 118.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.25 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.71 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.40 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 37.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.62 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 44% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 16.0% 9.8% 8.4% 6.2% 10.6% 20.1% 44.4% Logistic: 3.6% 13.9% 8.9% 6.2% 1.4% 8.4% 9.1% 14.6% Bayesian: 1.3% 1.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.8% 4.3% 1.6% Consensus: 3.3% 10.3% 6.5% 5.0% 2.5% 6.6% 11.2% 20.2% DTOPS: 2.0% 21.0% 11.0% 7.0% 1.0% 9.0% 50.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092021 IDA 08/27/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092021 IDA 08/27/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 42 47 52 56 64 75 81 48 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 38 43 48 52 60 71 77 44 30 25 23 23 23 23 23 12HR AGO 35 32 31 36 41 45 53 64 70 37 23 18 16 16 16 16 16 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 30 34 42 53 59 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT