* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092021 08/26/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 46 49 55 64 68 77 79 76 71 70 68 65 63 62 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 46 49 53 62 66 75 50 34 29 27 27 27 27 28 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 40 42 45 49 55 63 72 50 34 29 27 27 27 27 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 15 16 18 15 11 5 17 10 20 13 24 13 16 22 29 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 1 -4 -1 3 0 3 -3 3 4 0 2 2 0 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 217 215 243 238 226 215 237 280 278 285 249 259 239 255 239 256 257 SST (C) 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.7 30.0 30.1 30.3 31.0 31.8 32.0 31.7 31.0 31.0 30.0 29.5 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 155 157 165 171 173 172 171 170 170 171 171 170 169 161 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 146 149 150 157 160 159 158 167 170 170 171 157 153 138 133 126 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -53.1 -53.0 -52.6 -52.7 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -51.6 -50.9 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.8 1.1 0.9 1.3 0.8 0.6 -0.2 0.3 0.0 0.3 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 7 5 7 4 7 0 4 0 1 700-500 MB RH 65 66 65 65 67 68 71 69 70 68 69 63 65 61 54 43 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 17 16 19 22 22 27 28 26 23 20 18 15 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 73 71 60 43 47 30 8 -15 -19 -49 -17 -62 30 37 69 51 88 200 MB DIV 100 105 84 48 48 33 39 -6 62 51 69 45 56 42 7 -20 -22 700-850 TADV 7 8 14 15 11 3 2 12 2 16 5 4 10 12 -7 -15 -2 LAND (KM) 129 201 255 147 76 157 438 186 35 -50 -203 -329 -514 -602 -665 -631 -469 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.7 19.6 20.8 21.9 23.9 25.7 27.4 28.9 30.2 31.7 33.2 35.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 79.4 80.1 80.9 81.8 82.6 84.6 86.8 88.8 90.5 91.5 91.7 91.3 90.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 13 14 13 13 13 11 9 7 8 9 9 8 9 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 50 54 58 69 79 90 100 99 41 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 14 CX,CY: -6/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 470 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 31. 36. 40. 41. 42. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 7. 12. 13. 10. 5. 0. -4. -7. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 20. 29. 33. 42. 44. 41. 36. 35. 33. 30. 28. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.7 79.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092021 NINE 08/26/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.56 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 62.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.41 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 127.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.34 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.73 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.49 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 36.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.63 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 33% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 16.3% 9.8% 8.2% 6.0% 10.3% 14.8% 32.9% Logistic: 5.4% 19.6% 12.2% 8.2% 1.9% 10.1% 12.8% 22.8% Bayesian: 2.3% 1.5% 1.5% 0.8% 0.3% 1.0% 1.9% 0.8% Consensus: 4.3% 12.5% 7.8% 5.7% 2.7% 7.1% 9.8% 18.8% DTOPS: 2.0% 28.0% 17.0% 6.0% 3.0% 3.0% 21.0% 25.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092021 NINE 08/26/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092021 NINE 08/26/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 42 46 49 53 62 66 75 50 34 29 27 27 27 27 28 18HR AGO 35 34 38 42 45 49 58 62 71 46 30 25 23 23 23 23 24 12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 38 42 51 55 64 39 23 18 16 16 16 16 17 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 32 41 45 54 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT