* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAIAS AL092020 08/05/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 38 37 35 32 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 35 31 30 30 30 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 34 31 30 30 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 66 71 59 41 14 3 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -15 -10 -12 -3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 215 218 216 212 201 252 229 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 17.3 24.7 8.5 11.9 12.1 9.1 5.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 78 108 68 68 67 63 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 75 95 66 66 64 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -48.3 -48.0 -48.3 -48.8 -49.6 -50.9 -50.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 1.7 3.0 2.5 2.1 2.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 62 57 52 55 56 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 20 20 19 18 16 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 44 47 55 30 49 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 90 49 36 61 54 19 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 28 57 57 10 6 6 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -222 -334 -227 -245 -373 -481 -313 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 44.0 46.5 49.0 50.8 52.6 54.2 54.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 73.1 72.1 71.1 70.6 70.2 68.6 66.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 30 26 22 18 14 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 34 CX,CY: 14/ 31 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. -15. -17. -20. -20. -22. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -8. -15. -20. -26. -31. -36. -42. -46. -48. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. 13. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -16. -19. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -11. -14. -15. -17. -18. -19. -19. -19. -18. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -8. -10. -13. -20. -27. -34. -40. -47. -55. -63. -72. -80. -87. -90. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 44.0 73.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092020 ISAIAS 08/05/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 50.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.71 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 139.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.01 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.41 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 94.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.05 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092020 ISAIAS 08/05/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092020 ISAIAS 08/05/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 35 31 30 30 30 30 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 40 39 39 39 39 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 40 40 40 40 40 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 35 35 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT