* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAIAS AL092020 08/04/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 57 54 50 45 41 35 28 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 41 33 31 30 30 30 30 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 40 33 31 30 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 40 50 61 68 59 17 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 5 1 -10 -8 -4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 210 205 210 212 216 208 247 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 28.5 23.6 25.0 9.1 12.1 5.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 150 101 111 68 68 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 159 138 92 98 67 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.1 -49.1 -48.3 -47.7 -48.2 -49.6 -51.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.7 2.2 1.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 3 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 56 60 60 56 53 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 26 24 21 19 18 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 27 34 44 56 44 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 104 112 104 38 40 47 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 30 40 47 68 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -88 -83 -237 -302 -238 -320 -508 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.7 40.5 43.2 45.8 48.4 52.0 54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 76.8 75.2 73.7 72.4 71.2 70.1 69.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 30 30 28 27 23 16 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 4 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 29 CX,CY: 12/ 26 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. -16. -18. -19. -21. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -6. -8. -11. -12. -18. -24. -29. -33. -38. -42. -46. -50. -52. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -18. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. -17. -17. -17. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -10. -15. -19. -25. -32. -38. -43. -49. -56. -64. -71. -79. -85. -89. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 37.7 76.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092020 ISAIAS 08/04/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 55.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.71 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 292.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.63 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.51 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 64.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.36 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092020 ISAIAS 08/04/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092020 ISAIAS 08/04/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 41 33 31 30 30 30 30 30 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 51 49 48 48 48 48 48 48 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 12HR AGO 60 57 56 54 53 53 53 53 53 53 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 49 49 49 49 49 49 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT