* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAIAS AL092020 08/04/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 59 58 52 43 36 29 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 45 35 32 30 30 30 30 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 45 35 31 30 30 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 35 41 51 59 66 54 13 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 2 2 -6 -10 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 231 212 203 208 211 217 238 247 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 30.2 29.3 24.6 15.9 12.1 12.0 5.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 177 162 108 75 69 67 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 146 166 148 97 71 67 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -48.9 -49.1 -49.3 -48.7 -48.2 -49.2 -50.2 -51.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.7 1.7 2.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 4 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 59 57 60 62 52 52 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 23 23 20 16 15 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 18 31 24 28 49 33 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 56 93 102 104 54 55 39 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 28 -4 14 31 41 49 -23 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -79 -88 -112 -181 -201 -95 -285 -331 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.0 37.4 39.8 42.3 44.7 49.3 52.5 53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 78.1 76.9 75.7 73.9 72.2 69.3 67.7 65.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 25 26 27 28 26 21 13 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 24 CX,CY: 8/ 23 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -3. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. -15. -17. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -6. -8. -14. -17. -19. -26. -30. -35. -39. -43. -48. -52. -54. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. -1. -4. -7. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. -17. -17. -17. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -8. -17. -24. -31. -37. -42. -49. -55. -62. -69. -75. -80. -85. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 35.0 78.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092020 ISAIAS 08/04/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 50.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.55 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 327.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.60 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.34 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.52 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 47.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.53 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092020 ISAIAS 08/04/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092020 ISAIAS 08/04/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 45 35 32 30 30 30 30 30 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 49 46 44 44 44 44 44 44 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 53 51 51 51 51 51 51 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 48 48 48 48 48 48 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT