* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAIAS AL092020 08/03/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 63 66 66 66 57 40 24 24 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 61 63 66 57 38 31 30 27 32 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 61 61 62 63 37 31 30 28 29 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 24 19 22 27 49 65 63 41 28 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -1 0 4 5 1 -3 -4 0 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 282 282 259 235 228 204 213 229 240 274 265 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.0 28.0 27.6 17.5 14.7 12.2 10.9 10.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 162 160 154 140 137 78 73 70 67 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 141 139 140 138 126 124 74 70 67 65 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.0 -49.9 -49.5 -49.4 -49.4 -49.4 -49.0 -49.6 -51.3 -52.2 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.6 1.2 1.5 1.1 2.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 10 6 7 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 55 56 56 58 56 54 50 48 48 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 19 20 19 22 18 11 6 9 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -11 -7 -3 -3 34 31 38 2 50 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 24 37 55 92 78 86 72 38 35 15 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 7 13 26 28 30 18 102 -12 16 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 88 138 161 67 -24 -40 -99 -79 -191 13 354 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.0 30.0 30.9 32.5 34.1 38.3 43.1 48.0 52.0 54.7 56.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.9 79.8 79.7 79.0 78.4 75.7 72.0 67.8 63.1 58.6 54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 13 17 20 26 28 26 22 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 37 39 42 26 17 5 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -13. -22. -30. -32. -33. -37. -41. -45. -49. -51. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 3. -0. -9. -18. -14. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 6. 6. -3. -20. -36. -36. -39. -45. -51. -56. -61. -65. -70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 29.0 79.9 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092020 ISAIAS 08/03/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.22 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.21 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.55 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 401.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.52 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.44 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.40 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.81 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 18.6% 13.1% 10.7% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.5% 10.6% 7.1% 4.3% 1.2% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.1% 9.7% 6.8% 5.0% 3.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092020 ISAIAS 08/03/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092020 ISAIAS 08/03/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 61 63 66 57 38 31 30 27 32 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 61 64 55 36 29 28 25 30 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 59 50 31 24 23 20 25 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 41 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT