* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAIAS AL092020 08/03/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 61 62 64 63 61 48 29 27 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 61 61 62 64 46 40 31 30 29 34 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 62 62 63 63 47 40 31 30 29 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 29 24 23 23 30 51 59 59 32 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -3 0 0 6 0 -3 1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 282 284 281 259 248 219 209 215 228 255 267 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.2 30.4 25.9 16.5 18.5 15.1 10.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 164 162 161 157 176 118 75 80 74 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 135 141 140 138 139 169 106 71 74 70 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.1 -50.0 -49.8 -49.7 -49.7 -49.5 -49.3 -49.9 -50.9 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 10 10 6 6 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 51 56 57 57 57 54 50 48 44 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 17 18 19 18 20 15 8 12 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -33 -13 -11 0 3 22 25 18 23 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 17 38 57 78 95 74 62 34 34 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 10 6 16 29 19 34 34 0 11 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 81 110 154 183 103 -22 16 -77 -39 -184 279 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.1 29.0 29.9 31.0 32.0 35.7 40.5 44.4 48.2 52.2 56.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.7 79.7 79.6 79.4 79.2 77.2 73.6 70.1 65.8 60.8 55.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 15 24 26 24 25 26 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 38 40 41 48 34 6 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 8 CX,CY: -1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. -3. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -10. -18. -27. -31. -33. -36. -40. -44. -47. -49. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. -0. 2. -5. -15. -12. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 4. 3. 1. -12. -31. -33. -36. -42. -48. -54. -58. -61. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 28.1 79.7 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092020 ISAIAS 08/03/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.17 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.26 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.39 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 406.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.51 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.46 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.34 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 15.6% 11.0% 9.3% 8.0% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.7% 9.1% 5.4% 4.0% 1.3% 2.0% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 8.3% 5.5% 4.4% 3.1% 3.9% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092020 ISAIAS 08/03/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092020 ISAIAS 08/03/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 61 61 62 64 46 40 31 30 29 34 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 59 60 62 44 38 29 28 27 32 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 57 59 41 35 26 25 24 29 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 52 34 28 19 18 17 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT