* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAIAS AL092020 08/02/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 62 62 62 62 61 53 33 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 61 62 62 62 52 35 30 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 62 62 62 63 53 35 31 30 31 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 24 26 24 25 29 47 62 65 54 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 4 2 -2 6 1 0 1 1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 287 276 276 266 251 229 205 210 221 230 243 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.4 29.5 29.3 28.1 28.6 21.2 17.0 15.0 15.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 158 160 158 141 150 89 76 72 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 134 131 136 140 139 127 137 81 71 68 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.5 -50.2 -50.0 -49.8 -49.6 -49.6 -49.2 -49.5 -49.9 -50.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.3 2.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 9 10 6 8 3 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 54 52 58 56 58 53 49 48 51 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 17 18 17 18 19 20 19 11 6 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -21 -25 3 0 14 48 34 60 65 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 34 23 43 56 86 85 62 52 28 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 11 11 10 22 30 33 2 72 -40 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 55 47 30 80 117 -19 -41 -106 -203 0 -228 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.4 28.1 28.7 29.8 30.8 33.9 37.8 42.5 46.6 50.2 53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.7 80.1 80.4 80.3 80.3 78.9 76.1 72.3 68.5 64.9 61.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 9 10 13 20 25 26 23 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 37 32 31 33 34 19 17 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 8 CX,CY: -1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 2. -0. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -9. -17. -27. -34. -36. -40. -43. -48. -51. -53. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -3. -14. -22. -19. -20. -20. -20. -20. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -7. -27. -44. -46. -51. -56. -61. -65. -68. -72. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 27.4 79.7 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092020 ISAIAS 08/02/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.20 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.22 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.31 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 376.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.55 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.43 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.74 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 17.0% 12.2% 10.4% 9.2% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 6.6% 4.2% 3.8% 1.1% 2.7% 0.6% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.4% 8.0% 5.5% 4.8% 3.4% 4.4% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 5.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092020 ISAIAS 08/02/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092020 ISAIAS 08/02/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 61 62 62 62 52 35 30 30 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 60 60 60 50 33 28 28 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 56 56 46 29 24 24 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 50 40 23 18 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT