* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAIAS AL092020 08/02/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 54 52 52 56 58 57 43 26 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 54 54 52 52 56 43 33 30 30 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 53 52 52 51 51 40 32 30 30 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 23 22 25 20 21 31 56 63 59 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 3 5 1 5 0 4 0 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 290 291 272 277 273 246 222 207 218 229 227 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.1 29.1 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.6 26.8 16.9 16.0 11.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 152 152 158 158 157 167 128 77 73 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 137 132 132 135 137 140 153 117 72 68 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.7 -50.4 -50.4 -50.4 -49.8 -49.8 -49.5 -49.2 -49.6 -50.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.0 0.7 0.8 2.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 9 10 6 6 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 54 53 53 56 56 56 51 52 51 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 18 16 16 19 19 21 15 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -65 -27 -26 -26 -12 10 20 44 42 54 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 32 25 22 29 85 96 66 60 22 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 9 9 11 11 24 23 30 53 -2 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 58 45 50 45 56 80 -49 -19 -105 -38 -69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.5 27.3 28.0 28.8 29.5 31.9 35.4 40.1 45.2 48.7 50.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.5 79.8 80.0 80.3 80.5 79.8 77.6 74.3 69.8 66.1 63.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 10 16 23 29 26 18 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 47 36 33 32 32 33 4 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -12. -21. -29. -36. -40. -44. -48. -52. -54. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -0. -1. 1. 2. 3. -5. -15. -17. -18. -18. -18. -18. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -3. -3. 1. 3. 2. -12. -29. -39. -43. -49. -55. -61. -64. -67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 26.5 79.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092020 ISAIAS 08/02/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.22 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.24 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.24 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.13 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 384.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.54 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.47 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.70 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 9.0% 6.5% 5.9% 4.9% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.4% 0.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 3.4% 2.4% 2.2% 1.7% 3.0% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092020 ISAIAS 08/02/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092020 ISAIAS 08/02/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 54 54 52 52 56 43 33 30 30 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 54 52 52 56 43 33 30 30 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 49 49 53 40 30 27 27 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 45 49 36 26 23 23 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT