* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAIAS AL092020 08/02/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 53 52 51 53 54 55 50 38 36 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 53 53 52 51 53 54 35 31 30 31 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 53 52 51 50 49 49 34 30 30 31 28 29 33 39 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 30 23 23 27 23 27 39 55 62 41 42 28 19 15 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -1 3 3 -4 3 6 0 -1 -4 0 -3 -3 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 277 290 289 271 279 257 237 208 210 219 237 252 240 246 259 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.4 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.4 27.8 29.4 23.1 12.8 17.9 13.3 11.2 11.0 13.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 157 161 158 156 159 137 163 97 70 77 69 67 67 69 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 133 137 140 136 135 140 122 149 88 68 71 66 65 65 66 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.8 -50.8 -50.5 -50.5 -50.1 -49.4 -49.8 -49.4 -49.6 -49.3 -49.3 -50.0 -50.7 -51.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.3 -0.1 1.0 1.2 2.1 2.7 2.9 2.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 11 10 9 10 7 8 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 52 55 57 54 57 56 53 54 45 44 46 47 52 55 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 17 17 16 18 18 18 19 14 18 12 15 14 12 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -53 -63 -23 -16 -29 -4 -8 44 27 52 51 68 80 108 108 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 13 21 27 26 54 79 95 61 72 30 29 29 23 22 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 2 6 9 11 17 33 36 -11 54 -35 1 -19 -25 -6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 94 57 42 43 34 126 18 -45 -78 -83 56 22 43 374 715 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.9 26.6 27.3 28.1 28.8 30.8 33.5 37.4 41.9 45.5 48.3 50.5 52.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.2 79.5 79.8 80.1 80.4 80.2 78.8 76.4 72.3 67.9 63.5 59.2 55.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 9 12 18 25 25 22 19 17 15 15 16 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 41 38 37 33 30 35 17 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. -2. -5. -9. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -17. -26. -31. -35. -38. -39. -40. -42. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -12. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -8. -5. -14. -10. -11. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. 0. -5. -17. -19. -35. -37. -42. -49. -53. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 25.9 79.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092020 ISAIAS 08/02/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.15 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.24 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.34 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.18 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 369.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.55 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.48 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.86 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 9.8% 7.1% 6.5% 5.3% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 1.8% 0.9% 0.9% 0.3% 0.9% 0.8% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 3.9% 2.7% 2.5% 1.9% 3.0% 0.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092020 ISAIAS 08/02/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092020 ISAIAS 08/02/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 53 53 52 51 53 54 35 31 30 31 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 54 53 52 54 55 36 32 31 32 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 50 49 51 52 33 29 28 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 44 46 47 28 24 23 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT