* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAIAS AL092020 08/02/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 57 54 54 54 52 54 59 55 43 29 23 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 57 54 54 54 52 54 44 33 30 30 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 56 54 52 51 50 51 42 32 30 30 29 27 32 37 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 27 26 18 21 21 18 25 49 59 60 38 27 23 25 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 1 2 0 5 0 7 3 -1 -1 0 0 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 274 277 289 277 266 272 241 213 202 210 222 221 242 263 281 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.2 28.6 24.8 19.2 19.6 14.8 12.0 9.9 11.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 159 161 159 157 157 150 109 81 82 72 67 65 65 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 134 134 138 138 138 135 139 136 98 76 75 68 65 63 63 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.6 -50.7 -50.6 -50.6 -50.6 -49.9 -50.0 -49.7 -49.5 -49.3 -49.4 -49.8 -49.5 -50.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.7 2.6 3.2 2.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 10 9 10 6 7 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 51 52 55 55 56 56 53 50 47 45 45 48 50 50 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 15 17 17 16 17 20 19 15 11 12 15 14 12 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -57 -59 -17 -12 -16 7 9 18 31 25 71 87 123 107 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 -2 15 33 31 39 73 92 47 62 41 36 18 19 7 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 13 6 -1 4 10 10 19 20 21 21 -38 -46 -44 26 -1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 141 83 36 19 9 34 76 -72 -16 -1 -36 79 15 284 431 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.3 26.0 26.7 27.3 27.9 29.6 31.8 35.1 39.6 43.5 46.9 49.5 51.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 78.9 79.3 79.7 80.0 80.4 80.8 80.0 77.8 74.5 70.3 65.4 60.4 55.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 8 10 15 23 25 25 23 20 15 11 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 46 40 37 36 33 32 33 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. -1. -5. -9. -13. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -12. -19. -27. -32. -35. -36. -38. -39. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -1. -1. -3. -3. -1. -3. -9. -15. -15. -12. -12. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -6. -6. -8. -6. -0. -5. -17. -31. -37. -40. -45. -53. -57. -60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 25.3 78.9 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092020 ISAIAS 08/02/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.25 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.25 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.17 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 385.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.54 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.44 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 10.1% 7.6% 7.4% 6.4% 8.2% 5.5% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 1.8% 1.1% 1.2% 0.5% 1.1% 0.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 4.0% 2.9% 2.9% 2.3% 3.1% 2.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092020 ISAIAS 08/02/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092020 ISAIAS 08/02/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 57 54 54 54 52 54 44 33 30 30 28 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 56 56 56 54 56 46 35 32 32 30 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 56 56 54 56 46 35 32 32 30 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 50 48 50 40 29 26 26 24 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT