* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAIAS AL092020 08/01/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 56 53 50 51 49 50 51 51 42 32 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 56 53 50 51 49 50 45 40 29 22 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 55 51 48 46 44 42 43 36 30 29 29 30 32 36 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 26 28 29 20 29 22 28 34 45 52 55 40 32 25 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 1 0 1 1 -3 0 7 3 4 -6 0 -2 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 271 269 275 288 274 275 262 241 220 213 227 241 269 269 263 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.1 29.2 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.3 27.5 26.3 23.2 13.4 18.5 12.8 10.6 11.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 153 154 161 159 156 158 133 121 97 71 80 69 64 63 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 139 135 135 140 138 134 139 120 108 88 69 74 67 62 61 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.6 -50.7 -50.9 -50.8 -50.7 -50.5 -49.9 -50.4 -50.0 -50.3 -50.7 -51.6 -51.6 -51.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.2 1.0 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 10 9 10 7 8 3 3 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 54 52 53 54 55 57 54 54 59 54 56 54 58 56 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 17 15 17 15 16 17 17 13 10 7 8 12 16 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -42 -47 -62 -61 -16 -39 -21 -36 8 0 -12 -71 -100 -18 67 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 12 4 8 29 29 53 63 88 39 54 21 24 21 11 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 15 15 7 3 5 12 11 29 46 14 78 38 27 -25 -27 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 212 144 81 36 26 43 115 -13 23 -4 -10 117 33 265 386 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.8 25.5 26.2 26.9 27.6 29.0 31.0 34.0 37.6 41.3 44.8 47.7 49.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 78.3 78.8 79.3 79.7 80.1 80.4 80.2 78.3 75.4 71.8 67.3 61.5 54.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 8 13 19 22 24 24 24 20 10 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 48 46 39 37 34 30 34 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 3. 1. -3. -7. -11. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -13. -17. -23. -29. -34. -37. -39. -41. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -2. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -11. -15. -21. -19. -14. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -10. -9. -11. -10. -9. -9. -18. -28. -40. -48. -49. -50. -55. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 24.8 78.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092020 ISAIAS 08/01/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.17 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.27 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.15 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 377.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.55 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.44 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 9.2% 8.2% 5.6% 4.8% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 3.2% 2.8% 1.9% 1.6% 2.6% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092020 ISAIAS 08/01/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092020 ISAIAS 08/01/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 56 53 50 51 49 50 45 40 29 22 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 56 53 54 52 53 48 43 32 25 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 53 54 52 53 48 43 32 25 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 51 49 50 45 40 29 22 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT