* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAIAS AL092020 08/01/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 73 72 68 66 64 61 64 65 61 50 34 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 73 72 68 66 64 61 64 54 53 41 32 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 75 74 71 69 66 64 63 59 54 45 32 29 29 33 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 22 22 25 25 19 21 14 19 36 56 59 53 48 40 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 3 3 1 4 0 2 3 11 2 -1 -4 -8 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 272 274 269 276 290 271 282 262 209 210 217 235 249 257 258 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.6 29.4 29.4 28.7 29.2 26.2 20.6 20.2 15.8 12.9 10.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 156 154 156 161 158 159 149 159 120 86 84 72 67 65 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 138 139 136 136 140 136 138 132 142 108 78 76 68 65 63 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.6 -50.4 -50.5 -50.8 -50.5 -50.5 -49.9 -50.1 -50.0 -49.9 -50.4 -51.6 -52.7 -53.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.7 0.6 -0.1 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 10 9 10 7 7 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 53 54 53 53 55 58 55 52 52 49 50 47 45 45 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 16 18 16 16 16 16 17 17 16 13 8 5 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -46 -48 -48 -66 -64 -26 -38 -28 -50 -1 3 -18 -51 0 19 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 8 2 -4 0 32 25 66 78 62 35 18 21 9 16 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 16 20 7 3 6 7 18 16 17 21 4 17 7 6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 247 227 150 95 45 53 105 69 -23 96 41 19 -13 -11 200 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.3 25.0 25.6 26.3 26.9 28.3 30.0 32.5 35.6 39.4 43.5 46.5 48.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 77.5 78.1 78.7 79.1 79.6 80.1 80.2 79.0 76.4 73.2 69.3 64.4 58.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 8 11 16 21 24 24 22 18 13 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 44 48 45 40 38 32 33 25 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -4. -7. -11. -16. -21. -26. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -8. -7. -9. -14. -20. -24. -28. -31. -33. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -7. -12. -20. -24. -25. -26. -25. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -7. -9. -11. -14. -11. -10. -14. -25. -41. -54. -64. -70. -71. -73. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 24.3 77.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092020 ISAIAS 08/01/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.22 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.28 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.33 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.18 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 497.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.42 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.31 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.15 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.84 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 11.0% 8.5% 8.1% 6.8% 8.2% 5.6% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 2.6% 1.7% 2.1% 0.9% 1.5% 0.7% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 4.6% 3.4% 3.4% 2.6% 3.2% 2.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092020 ISAIAS 08/01/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092020 ISAIAS 08/01/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 4( 9) 3( 12) 0( 12) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 73 72 68 66 64 61 64 54 53 41 32 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 73 69 67 65 62 65 55 54 42 33 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 67 65 63 60 63 53 52 40 31 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 63 61 58 61 51 50 38 29 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT