* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAIAS AL092020 08/01/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 75 74 72 70 66 61 60 60 59 49 38 26 27 21 17 N/A V (KT) LAND 75 75 74 72 70 66 61 60 51 51 40 30 23 27 26 22 N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 77 77 75 72 67 64 61 53 51 44 33 33 30 34 36 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 28 27 23 25 27 21 28 21 28 36 51 56 53 40 37 34 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 1 0 0 -1 -1 -4 -4 3 0 -4 -6 0 -3 -5 -1 SHEAR DIR 273 278 278 273 276 281 284 272 255 218 218 230 243 266 284 286 285 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.3 29.2 28.8 26.6 21.0 15.9 17.0 13.5 11.1 13.5 13.3 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 158 158 161 161 156 157 153 125 87 73 75 70 68 69 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 141 141 138 140 139 135 141 139 112 79 69 70 67 66 66 65 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -50.9 -50.6 -50.4 -50.6 -50.9 -50.8 -50.5 -50.1 -50.4 -50.2 -50.9 -51.7 -52.4 -52.7 -53.3 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 10 9 10 9 10 7 7 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 50 51 53 54 52 55 53 55 56 57 63 57 55 50 47 44 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 16 16 15 13 14 13 15 13 11 8 14 13 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR -36 -51 -50 -51 -61 -14 -41 -30 -54 -11 -14 -5 -43 -57 -46 -27 27 200 MB DIV 16 8 10 6 0 21 22 46 51 91 33 31 26 13 18 5 14 700-850 TADV 3 8 17 15 8 4 11 11 20 30 0 54 13 22 38 25 14 LAND (KM) 214 258 222 146 80 48 65 144 -23 85 35 -84 99 -23 287 675 997 LAT (DEG N) 23.5 24.4 25.2 25.8 26.3 27.7 29.1 31.3 34.9 38.8 42.9 46.1 48.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 76.6 77.4 78.1 78.7 79.3 79.9 80.2 79.6 77.1 73.8 70.3 66.0 61.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 9 8 7 7 9 16 22 24 23 21 20 20 19 16 15 HEAT CONTENT 44 46 50 44 40 38 32 37 27 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. -0. -3. -6. -10. -15. -20. -24. -28. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -9. -12. -13. -13. -14. -16. -19. -23. -27. -30. -32. -34. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -6. -10. -13. -17. -10. -11. -10. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -14. -14. -15. -16. -26. -37. -49. -48. -54. -58. -63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 23.5 76.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092020 ISAIAS 08/01/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.15 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.30 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.29 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 504.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.41 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.34 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.91 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.3% 15.3% 11.5% 10.4% 8.9% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.7% 5.9% 4.3% 6.2% 2.6% 4.3% 1.3% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 4.3% 7.3% 5.3% 5.6% 3.8% 4.6% 0.4% 0.1% DTOPS: 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092020 ISAIAS 08/01/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092020 ISAIAS 08/01/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 5( 10) 4( 13) 3( 16) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 75 74 72 70 66 61 60 51 51 40 30 23 27 26 22 DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 73 71 69 65 60 59 50 50 39 29 22 26 25 21 DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 69 67 63 58 57 48 48 37 27 20 24 23 19 DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 63 59 54 53 44 44 33 23 16 20 19 15 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT