* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAIAS AL092020 08/01/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 70 68 68 66 60 57 55 59 60 52 41 26 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 70 68 68 66 60 57 55 51 44 37 26 19 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 71 70 68 67 62 58 57 58 44 43 37 29 26 32 32 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 23 28 27 24 25 27 22 21 18 26 43 54 62 58 52 42 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 2 2 0 1 0 -3 0 3 8 3 -3 -2 -3 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 257 266 275 271 265 286 272 280 245 206 212 221 242 252 263 265 276 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.4 29.7 29.4 29.2 28.0 26.8 25.2 16.7 20.8 14.4 12.1 11.8 14.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 157 160 158 163 158 156 139 126 111 75 86 71 68 68 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 141 142 143 139 141 137 137 123 111 98 71 77 67 66 66 67 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -51.1 -51.0 -50.6 -50.5 -50.8 -50.7 -50.5 -50.2 -50.3 -50.3 -50.5 -51.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.4 -0.2 0.0 -0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 9 9 9 10 8 10 6 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 53 51 52 54 55 53 55 56 55 55 57 58 57 55 54 55 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 16 16 17 17 15 14 13 15 16 14 12 7 6 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -44 -55 -43 -47 -63 -30 -50 -39 -32 -23 -36 -72 -87 -82 -35 32 200 MB DIV 53 14 0 15 5 -2 20 38 80 75 50 36 16 21 16 28 3 700-850 TADV 24 9 6 15 12 4 7 4 24 14 48 39 29 36 37 45 46 LAND (KM) 194 230 276 196 104 46 70 156 0 31 26 64 18 -50 45 429 811 LAT (DEG N) 22.9 23.8 24.6 25.3 25.9 27.4 29.0 31.0 33.9 37.1 40.6 43.8 46.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 75.9 76.8 77.6 78.4 79.1 79.8 80.1 79.7 78.1 75.6 72.4 68.1 62.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 10 9 9 8 9 13 17 21 22 23 21 18 17 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 44 45 47 49 41 39 33 39 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 13 CX,CY: -9/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -4. -8. -12. -17. -21. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -11. -12. -11. -11. -14. -19. -25. -30. -36. -39. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -9. -8. -12. -16. -23. -24. -25. -24. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -2. -2. -4. -10. -13. -15. -11. -10. -18. -29. -44. -54. -62. -67. -71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 22.9 75.9 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092020 ISAIAS 08/01/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.17 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.30 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.33 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 432.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.49 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.40 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.2% 16.6% 12.2% 11.1% 9.7% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.7% 6.3% 4.2% 6.6% 3.3% 4.7% 2.6% 0.6% Bayesian: 1.1% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 4.7% 8.1% 5.7% 5.9% 4.3% 4.9% 0.9% 0.2% DTOPS: 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092020 ISAIAS 08/01/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092020 ISAIAS 08/01/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 3( 7) 3( 10) 0( 10) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 70 68 68 66 60 57 55 51 44 37 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 67 67 65 59 56 54 50 43 36 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 66 64 58 55 53 49 42 35 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 58 52 49 47 43 36 29 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT