* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAIAS AL092020 07/31/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 62 61 59 56 53 51 55 54 51 42 29 19 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 64 62 61 59 56 53 51 55 39 35 26 22 23 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 63 61 59 57 53 49 47 47 36 35 32 27 30 28 29 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 23 26 26 24 27 21 21 19 24 42 50 67 63 56 46 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 5 3 1 1 -1 4 2 7 4 2 -6 -7 -4 -5 -6 SHEAR DIR 261 250 258 269 266 269 269 264 227 199 197 213 227 240 245 273 292 SST (C) 28.9 29.2 29.1 29.4 29.4 29.8 29.5 29.3 27.8 29.4 26.2 23.8 13.6 19.6 15.2 11.3 13.4 POT. INT. (KT) 152 157 154 159 158 165 159 157 135 160 119 101 71 80 72 71 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 147 141 143 141 143 137 137 117 138 104 91 68 72 69 69 71 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.8 -51.2 -51.1 -50.8 -50.9 -51.1 -50.5 -50.3 -50.1 -50.7 -50.8 -51.3 -52.0 -52.9 -53.8 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 8 9 9 10 8 10 7 9 3 2 0 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 51 52 50 52 54 52 52 52 53 50 51 59 56 55 48 42 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 18 18 16 16 15 14 15 14 14 11 8 6 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -29 -51 -57 -48 -68 -32 -54 -39 -54 -2 -20 13 -3 -66 -63 -64 200 MB DIV 31 36 12 -9 14 -3 35 35 49 54 51 25 27 17 17 12 -7 700-850 TADV 32 20 5 12 14 7 7 16 31 -3 34 -15 26 10 20 32 44 LAND (KM) 140 211 259 231 127 60 56 146 15 -40 43 17 -56 92 60 194 913 LAT (DEG N) 22.2 23.3 24.3 25.0 25.7 27.3 28.6 30.5 33.2 35.4 37.9 41.3 45.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 75.2 76.2 77.2 78.0 78.9 79.6 80.1 79.9 79.1 77.5 74.9 71.3 66.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 12 10 10 8 8 12 13 15 19 25 22 16 21 29 33 HEAT CONTENT 37 45 45 50 43 42 33 38 18 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -5. -9. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -13. -18. -24. -32. -38. -42. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -7. -9. -11. -16. -21. -22. -22. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -10. -11. -14. -23. -36. -46. -54. -60. -63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 22.2 75.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092020 ISAIAS 07/31/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.23 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.29 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.17 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 407.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.51 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.45 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 13.5% 10.0% 9.7% 8.7% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 2.5% 1.5% 2.6% 1.4% 2.9% 1.7% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 5.3% 3.8% 4.1% 3.4% 4.0% 0.6% 0.2% DTOPS: 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092020 ISAIAS 07/31/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092020 ISAIAS 07/31/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 0( 1) 0( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 64 62 61 59 56 53 51 55 39 35 26 22 23 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 62 61 59 56 53 51 55 39 35 26 22 23 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 60 58 55 52 50 54 38 34 25 21 22 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 53 50 47 45 49 33 29 20 16 17 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT