* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAIAS AL092020 07/31/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 63 62 61 58 56 54 55 57 63 63 55 42 27 17 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 63 62 61 58 56 54 55 57 63 56 49 35 29 23 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 64 63 61 59 55 53 51 51 54 50 47 39 31 28 31 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 22 20 20 24 25 22 25 17 16 13 29 41 55 66 65 69 59 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 4 5 4 0 2 3 1 4 2 10 5 -4 0 -6 2 SHEAR DIR 267 264 252 258 269 265 284 268 259 224 204 218 227 243 252 272 288 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.3 29.5 29.8 29.9 29.3 29.1 29.5 28.9 26.6 23.5 18.2 20.8 14.0 10.9 14.0 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 158 161 166 167 156 153 162 153 123 98 77 85 71 69 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 142 147 148 151 148 134 133 142 137 109 86 72 77 68 67 69 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.0 -50.9 -51.1 -51.0 -50.8 -51.1 -50.7 -50.5 -50.0 -50.2 -50.3 -50.6 -51.2 -52.4 -53.5 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.9 0.0 -0.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 9 8 10 8 10 5 5 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 52 52 52 52 53 55 55 52 52 51 56 57 55 52 52 57 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 18 18 16 16 16 16 16 17 18 15 12 9 8 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -16 -29 -42 -52 -50 -51 -42 -59 -72 -63 -40 -30 -15 -24 -43 -48 200 MB DIV 17 8 26 10 -8 13 11 26 41 47 63 29 11 5 19 0 7 700-850 TADV 35 36 15 7 4 8 9 8 13 19 7 40 10 6 0 10 37 LAND (KM) 114 138 188 221 245 89 73 127 150 10 92 53 115 0 -31 190 705 LAT (DEG N) 21.3 22.2 23.0 23.9 24.7 26.4 27.9 29.5 31.6 34.6 38.1 41.1 43.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 74.0 75.1 76.2 77.1 78.0 79.2 79.7 79.7 79.0 77.1 74.1 70.8 67.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 12 11 9 8 10 13 19 20 19 19 21 22 23 23 HEAT CONTENT 35 38 47 48 52 42 40 36 40 26 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 15 CX,CY: -11/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 1. -3. -7. -11. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -8. -12. -17. -24. -31. -39. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -11. -16. -20. -20. -21. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -10. -8. -2. -2. -10. -23. -38. -48. -58. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 21.3 74.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092020 ISAIAS 07/31/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.27 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.29 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.30 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.15 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 394.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.53 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.48 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.91 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 11.9% 8.8% 8.4% 7.2% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 1.9% 1.2% 1.6% 0.7% 1.4% 1.2% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 4.6% 3.3% 3.3% 2.6% 3.3% 0.4% 0.2% DTOPS: 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092020 ISAIAS 07/31/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092020 ISAIAS 07/31/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 63 62 61 58 56 54 55 57 63 56 49 35 29 23 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 63 62 59 57 55 56 58 64 57 50 36 30 24 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 60 57 55 53 54 56 62 55 48 34 28 22 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 52 50 48 49 51 57 50 43 29 23 17 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT