* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAIAS AL092020 07/31/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 71 72 71 70 69 66 69 69 69 70 59 45 34 25 18 N/A V (KT) LAND 70 71 72 71 70 69 66 69 69 69 70 59 45 33 29 26 N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 72 73 72 71 69 67 67 68 70 70 59 46 37 33 33 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 22 21 18 17 23 21 23 10 14 13 27 41 48 57 52 51 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 5 5 6 0 2 4 11 11 5 8 1 -5 -7 -8 -6 SHEAR DIR 267 262 264 244 256 257 266 257 243 200 191 202 228 248 259 267 263 SST (C) 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.3 29.5 29.8 29.8 29.2 29.4 29.8 26.3 25.3 16.5 20.1 14.8 12.5 11.8 POT. INT. (KT) 147 150 151 158 161 166 165 154 159 168 121 113 75 82 70 68 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 143 142 147 147 148 144 133 137 148 108 102 72 75 67 65 65 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.3 -51.0 -50.9 -51.1 -50.8 -50.8 -50.6 -49.9 -49.4 -49.4 -49.8 -50.0 -50.8 -51.8 -52.7 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 8 9 6 6 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 51 52 51 52 51 53 53 54 47 50 47 48 50 52 53 57 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 18 19 20 19 22 21 21 23 18 13 10 8 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 4 -1 -22 -35 -50 -47 -59 -15 -51 -25 -48 -27 -49 -67 -40 -25 41 200 MB DIV 25 23 12 26 6 10 13 46 25 58 32 24 23 8 9 0 3 700-850 TADV 32 37 32 15 9 9 3 4 11 13 3 13 -19 11 -9 2 19 LAND (KM) 67 133 164 221 254 165 70 106 206 101 25 146 30 -5 43 57 392 LAT (DEG N) 20.5 21.5 22.4 23.3 24.2 25.8 27.3 29.0 30.7 33.0 36.0 39.7 43.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 72.7 73.9 75.1 76.1 77.1 78.5 79.5 79.7 79.3 77.9 75.5 71.6 66.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 13 11 10 8 9 11 15 21 26 24 19 16 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 44 35 40 50 50 47 43 37 50 36 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. -7. -11. -15. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -6. -5. -4. -4. -7. -11. -16. -22. -27. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -2. -2. -3. -1. -2. -4. -1. -9. -16. -20. -22. -23. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -4. -1. -1. -1. 0. -11. -25. -36. -45. -52. -60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 20.5 72.7 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092020 ISAIAS 07/31/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 5.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.36 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.29 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.22 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 449.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.47 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.42 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.7% 18.1% 13.3% 12.0% 10.6% 11.1% 8.6% 7.7% Logistic: 3.9% 8.0% 5.6% 7.8% 3.7% 5.5% 1.8% 0.9% Bayesian: 1.3% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 4.6% 9.1% 6.5% 6.6% 4.8% 5.7% 3.5% 2.9% DTOPS: 4.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092020 ISAIAS 07/31/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092020 ISAIAS 07/31/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 4( 8) 4( 12) 3( 14) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 71 72 71 70 69 66 69 69 69 70 59 45 33 29 26 DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 70 69 68 67 64 67 67 67 68 57 43 31 27 24 DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 65 64 63 60 63 63 63 64 53 39 27 23 20 DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 59 58 55 58 58 58 59 48 34 22 18 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT