* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAIAS AL092020 07/31/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 50 49 50 48 46 44 46 50 50 51 41 28 17 17 20 V (KT) LAND 50 50 50 49 50 48 46 44 46 50 45 50 40 26 30 30 33 V (KT) LGEM 50 50 49 48 47 44 42 40 40 43 46 47 42 35 34 30 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 25 23 17 20 22 20 20 15 15 19 38 55 62 68 59 53 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 9 7 5 7 5 5 4 4 10 5 4 3 3 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 251 259 264 252 237 269 258 275 248 239 210 202 222 234 246 252 271 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.8 30.2 29.3 29.2 29.7 29.1 26.1 19.8 19.4 17.8 12.9 13.7 POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 150 152 154 166 171 156 155 165 157 119 83 80 77 72 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 138 143 143 143 150 153 134 132 144 140 108 77 74 71 69 71 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.3 -51.4 -51.2 -50.9 -51.1 -50.8 -51.1 -50.5 -50.2 -49.8 -50.4 -50.2 -50.1 -50.3 -51.7 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.6 -0.1 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 11 8 10 5 4 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 54 51 50 51 52 52 56 55 50 50 48 53 47 46 51 58 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 19 18 17 18 17 16 15 15 16 15 17 14 11 10 17 25 850 MB ENV VOR 20 -5 -18 -30 -35 -59 -48 -42 -46 -51 -67 -31 -9 -4 -29 -38 13 200 MB DIV 51 29 12 9 24 -7 14 9 12 44 34 41 -5 0 -9 7 -11 700-850 TADV 32 34 32 33 14 3 6 5 7 5 24 -18 -19 -42 -27 -20 2 LAND (KM) 11 108 182 211 265 265 114 114 185 141 -4 166 154 -10 45 11 683 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.9 21.8 22.8 23.7 25.3 26.9 28.5 30.0 32.0 34.8 38.1 41.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.2 72.4 73.6 74.8 76.0 77.6 78.9 79.5 79.3 78.5 76.6 73.2 68.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 12 10 9 8 9 13 19 24 24 19 21 27 30 HEAT CONTENT 35 43 38 42 52 57 48 42 46 38 29 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 16 CX,CY: -11/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 493 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 17. 16. 14. 11. 8. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -10. -16. -25. -35. -42. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -12. -15. -13. -17. -21. -21. -13. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -1. -0. -2. -4. -6. -4. -0. -0. 1. -9. -22. -33. -33. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 19.9 71.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092020 ISAIAS 07/31/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.33 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.28 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.73 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.23 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 298.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.63 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.57 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 15.9% 11.3% 9.8% 8.4% 10.5% 9.8% 8.0% Logistic: 2.7% 3.8% 2.3% 3.2% 1.5% 2.6% 3.3% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 6.9% 4.7% 4.3% 3.3% 4.4% 4.5% 3.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092020 ISAIAS 07/31/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092020 ISAIAS 07/31/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 50 50 49 50 48 46 44 46 50 45 50 40 26 30 30 33 18HR AGO 50 49 49 48 49 47 45 43 45 49 44 49 39 25 29 29 32 12HR AGO 50 47 46 45 46 44 42 40 42 46 41 46 36 22 26 26 29 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 41 39 37 35 37 41 36 41 31 17 21 21 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT