* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAIAS AL092020 07/30/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 51 51 50 50 48 47 50 53 58 56 51 40 26 15 N/A V (KT) LAND 50 50 50 50 49 49 47 46 49 52 57 55 50 39 25 15 N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 48 48 46 45 43 40 39 40 44 49 53 50 42 36 32 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 20 27 25 18 24 19 21 10 14 18 27 46 58 65 70 60 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 10 7 7 7 5 0 3 0 9 6 10 10 1 1 2 -5 SHEAR DIR 256 241 258 262 254 253 266 266 260 233 199 197 209 230 241 251 262 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.5 28.8 29.0 29.5 29.7 29.5 29.1 29.4 29.7 26.8 25.2 17.1 18.7 14.3 11.9 POT. INT. (KT) 146 143 146 150 153 161 164 160 153 158 166 126 112 76 79 71 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 139 140 143 144 147 147 140 132 135 145 114 101 72 73 68 67 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.1 -51.4 -51.4 -51.2 -51.1 -51.0 -50.8 -50.7 -50.0 -49.7 -49.7 -50.2 -50.3 -50.3 -50.1 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.9 0.5 -0.1 0.5 0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 10 8 10 7 7 2 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 56 53 51 52 52 50 53 52 53 46 49 49 53 48 45 52 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 19 18 17 17 16 15 16 17 19 18 18 15 11 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 36 22 -4 -13 -22 -41 -54 -64 -29 -57 -32 -50 -33 -23 -8 17 17 200 MB DIV 39 48 18 0 12 -1 6 -1 27 22 59 33 23 2 -7 -8 -21 700-850 TADV 30 33 30 41 35 6 4 4 3 5 15 19 13 -33 -23 -62 -25 LAND (KM) -33 17 111 145 167 235 137 55 105 178 99 21 153 101 77 114 311 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 20.0 20.9 21.7 22.5 24.1 25.7 27.4 29.2 30.9 32.8 35.8 39.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 69.9 71.3 72.7 74.0 75.4 77.3 78.8 79.7 79.8 79.5 78.3 75.5 71.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 15 15 13 11 10 9 9 9 15 23 25 23 21 21 22 HEAT CONTENT 37 36 43 35 42 49 44 40 35 46 33 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 17 CX,CY: -12/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. 15. 12. 9. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -12. -19. -27. -36. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -10. -9. -8. -10. -11. -15. -20. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. -0. 3. 8. 6. 1. -10. -24. -35. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 19.0 69.9 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092020 ISAIAS 07/30/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.34 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.25 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.73 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.19 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 283.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.64 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.58 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 16.5% 11.8% 10.3% 8.8% 10.9% 9.8% 7.7% Logistic: 3.0% 3.3% 2.3% 3.4% 1.3% 2.5% 2.6% 1.3% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 6.7% 4.8% 4.6% 3.4% 4.5% 4.2% 3.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092020 ISAIAS 07/30/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092020 ISAIAS 07/30/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 50 50 50 49 49 47 46 49 52 57 55 50 39 25 15 DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 49 49 48 48 46 45 48 51 56 54 49 38 24 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 46 45 45 43 42 45 48 53 51 46 35 21 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 39 39 37 36 39 42 47 45 40 29 15 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT