* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAIAS AL092020 07/30/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 55 54 56 55 52 50 49 50 48 50 48 44 38 36 32 V (KT) LAND 50 44 38 42 43 42 40 38 36 38 36 37 35 32 26 23 19 V (KT) LGEM 50 45 39 43 42 41 39 37 36 36 37 39 42 42 40 40 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 11 17 23 21 17 20 18 25 20 24 27 46 57 53 50 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 9 9 6 6 7 6 3 2 4 0 2 -9 -4 2 2 6 SHEAR DIR 286 243 237 256 273 231 252 247 272 234 239 234 236 233 230 240 252 SST (C) 29.0 28.6 28.4 28.5 28.8 29.4 29.8 29.8 29.1 29.0 29.6 29.0 25.7 18.8 19.5 18.1 13.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 148 144 145 150 160 166 166 153 152 164 156 116 79 81 78 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 147 140 139 144 150 149 147 133 131 145 142 103 73 75 73 69 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.6 -51.4 -51.5 -51.5 -51.3 -51.5 -51.2 -51.5 -51.0 -51.0 -50.7 -50.5 -49.9 -49.5 -50.2 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 7 10 5 3 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 59 57 55 53 52 52 51 55 54 53 51 52 55 52 52 53 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 20 17 18 16 15 13 12 12 10 10 11 13 14 17 20 850 MB ENV VOR 41 37 24 -3 -11 -39 -38 -48 -45 -26 -30 -36 -36 -23 10 54 44 200 MB DIV 41 40 33 25 4 16 -2 13 -12 23 39 36 34 12 3 3 14 700-850 TADV 12 21 15 31 31 5 2 1 1 4 2 19 -8 -19 -22 -57 20 LAND (KM) 49 -46 0 72 121 186 198 80 40 105 113 5 204 196 171 297 282 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.8 19.8 20.6 21.3 23.2 24.7 26.3 28.2 30.0 32.0 35.0 38.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 68.5 70.0 71.4 72.6 73.9 76.6 78.5 79.3 80.2 80.2 79.0 76.3 72.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 15 14 15 14 10 10 9 10 15 22 24 21 21 24 25 HEAT CONTENT 75 40 36 43 36 46 51 40 31 33 36 29 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 16 CX,CY: -11/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 498 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 11. 13. 15. 17. 18. 18. 17. 14. 11. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -13. -20. -27. -32. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -13. -14. -18. -18. -18. -15. -13. -9. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 4. 6. 5. 2. 0. -1. 0. -2. -0. -2. -6. -12. -14. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 17.7 68.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092020 ISAIAS 07/30/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.52 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.30 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.73 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.21 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 261.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.67 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.60 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.3% 18.8% 13.4% 11.3% 9.9% 12.1% 11.9% 11.1% Logistic: 4.9% 7.1% 4.3% 4.2% 2.2% 5.8% 3.9% 2.6% Bayesian: 3.6% 2.9% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.9% 1.1% 0.1% Consensus: 5.3% 9.6% 6.5% 5.3% 4.0% 6.3% 5.7% 4.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092020 ISAIAS 07/30/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092020 ISAIAS 07/30/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 44 38 42 43 42 40 38 36 38 36 37 35 32 26 23 19 18HR AGO 50 49 43 47 48 47 45 43 41 43 41 42 40 37 31 28 24 12HR AGO 50 47 46 50 51 50 48 46 44 46 44 45 43 40 34 31 27 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 41 40 38 36 34 36 34 35 33 30 24 21 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT