* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAIAS AL092020 07/30/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 60 63 66 67 67 65 66 66 70 72 72 68 62 55 49 V (KT) LAND 50 55 52 43 49 50 50 48 49 50 53 55 55 52 45 39 32 V (KT) LGEM 50 55 59 44 47 48 48 48 50 53 60 68 75 70 62 54 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 3 6 4 14 19 12 19 17 20 12 14 16 24 31 33 39 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 9 12 6 7 9 6 3 4 1 7 9 3 3 -1 2 -4 SHEAR DIR 319 289 247 227 255 249 239 245 260 254 231 204 200 209 225 238 271 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.1 29.8 29.6 27.5 26.7 25.6 19.9 18.3 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 154 156 157 156 158 157 159 153 167 164 132 122 113 84 80 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 154 154 154 153 148 146 140 139 134 147 144 114 103 97 78 76 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.9 -51.4 -51.2 -51.3 -51.1 -51.2 -51.1 -50.8 -50.6 -49.9 -49.3 -49.3 -50.8 -51.8 -52.4 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.7 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 8 11 8 8 4 3 0 700-500 MB RH 60 57 55 52 51 51 50 54 51 51 48 47 49 50 53 50 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 22 21 21 19 20 19 20 20 22 24 25 24 21 19 19 850 MB ENV VOR 59 43 49 32 8 -15 -17 -36 -46 2 14 41 42 -14 -57 -83 -52 200 MB DIV 69 60 51 56 30 10 -7 20 28 36 20 43 25 11 14 2 -47 700-850 TADV 7 7 16 18 22 24 1 3 0 3 6 32 0 19 4 13 -9 LAND (KM) 140 67 -4 -50 56 124 164 106 25 52 173 45 73 222 216 204 259 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.5 18.3 19.4 20.4 22.1 23.6 25.8 27.1 28.8 31.1 33.6 36.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 67.2 68.7 70.2 71.6 73.0 75.4 77.8 79.1 79.9 80.2 79.4 77.7 75.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 17 17 15 14 13 10 8 10 13 15 15 13 17 25 29 HEAT CONTENT 82 82 50 41 46 43 54 39 36 31 41 30 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 16. 17. 19. 20. 19. 18. 15. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -11. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -3. -1. -1. 1. -1. -5. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 13. 16. 17. 17. 15. 16. 16. 20. 22. 22. 18. 12. 5. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 16.7 67.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092020 ISAIAS 07/30/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 10.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.74 4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 60.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.40 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.73 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 269.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.66 2.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.68 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.38 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 4.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.9% 45.2% 29.1% 16.1% 12.9% 21.7% 25.1% 17.8% Logistic: 9.3% 19.0% 12.6% 6.7% 3.0% 6.0% 4.4% 2.5% Bayesian: 3.9% 8.9% 8.3% 2.6% 0.4% 2.5% 1.6% 0.3% Consensus: 10.1% 24.4% 16.7% 8.5% 5.4% 10.1% 10.4% 6.9% DTOPS: 12.0% 4.0% 3.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092020 ISAIAS 07/30/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092020 ISAIAS 07/30/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 55 52 43 49 50 50 48 49 50 53 55 55 52 45 39 32 18HR AGO 50 49 46 37 43 44 44 42 43 44 47 49 49 46 39 33 26 12HR AGO 50 47 46 37 43 44 44 42 43 44 47 49 49 46 39 33 26 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 46 47 47 45 46 47 50 52 52 49 42 36 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT