* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAIAS AL092020 07/30/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 52 56 60 63 63 64 62 63 66 69 69 70 66 59 48 V (KT) LAND 45 49 52 56 43 45 42 43 36 32 29 27 27 27 27 27 29 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 51 54 42 39 41 42 38 33 29 27 27 27 27 28 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 2 5 9 5 9 19 11 16 21 18 18 18 34 36 43 47 63 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 7 7 8 10 4 8 6 4 4 3 4 2 -1 -1 -7 -11 SHEAR DIR 39 276 313 293 231 270 218 240 223 242 211 231 221 225 228 235 245 SST (C) 28.6 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.9 29.4 29.7 29.3 30.6 30.1 29.9 29.7 30.6 30.7 28.4 29.9 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 148 154 154 156 170 160 165 158 172 170 166 163 171 172 145 171 106 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 154 154 155 170 155 154 146 165 147 141 140 156 160 126 150 93 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -51.6 -51.4 -51.6 -51.3 -51.4 -51.1 -51.2 -50.8 -50.8 -50.8 -51.8 -52.4 -53.3 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.1 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 11 10 10 9 10 9 11 7 11 5 3 700-500 MB RH 62 58 55 52 50 46 47 47 49 48 48 47 48 52 57 60 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 19 20 21 20 17 18 16 17 19 21 22 24 23 18 14 850 MB ENV VOR 90 73 51 46 44 18 35 0 -19 -11 10 10 -5 2 12 -18 -41 200 MB DIV 93 89 63 43 36 -13 4 0 4 5 29 22 11 34 23 41 24 700-850 TADV 5 2 3 14 19 14 -1 2 0 0 0 0 -1 -5 20 4 27 LAND (KM) 250 178 109 17 -41 5 8 75 -1 -41 -63 -69 -94 -115 -164 -87 -181 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.5 17.3 18.2 19.0 20.7 21.9 23.4 25.5 27.0 28.1 29.5 31.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 66.3 67.8 69.3 70.7 72.2 75.5 77.6 79.6 81.2 81.8 81.8 81.9 82.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 16 16 17 15 12 12 10 7 6 9 10 13 16 20 22 HEAT CONTENT 52 76 84 50 53 41 46 63 49 35 11 23 6 6 3 7 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 23. 25. 28. 27. 28. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -2. -6. -12. -17. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. -2. -5. -6. -9. -9. -8. -6. -5. -3. -4. -10. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 18. 19. 17. 18. 21. 24. 24. 25. 21. 14. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.7 66.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092020 ISAIAS 07/30/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 9.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.86 4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 63.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.42 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.64 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 236.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.69 2.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.75 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.44 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 4.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 32% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.8% 45.2% 28.1% 13.0% 12.5% 17.5% 31.6% 25.7% Logistic: 8.0% 18.5% 14.0% 4.2% 1.1% 2.3% 3.1% 3.8% Bayesian: 1.6% 5.1% 6.6% 0.7% 0.2% 1.7% 2.9% 0.8% Consensus: 6.1% 22.9% 16.2% 5.9% 4.6% 7.2% 12.5% 10.1% DTOPS: 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092020 ISAIAS 07/30/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092020 ISAIAS 07/30/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 49 52 56 43 45 42 43 36 32 29 27 27 27 27 27 29 18HR AGO 45 44 47 51 38 40 37 38 31 27 24 22 22 22 22 22 24 12HR AGO 45 42 41 45 32 34 31 32 25 21 18 16 16 16 16 16 18 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 22 24 21 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT