* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092020 07/29/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 49 52 55 54 51 46 44 39 40 35 38 36 39 35 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 49 44 35 38 35 30 28 23 23 18 21 25 26 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 42 44 40 33 35 33 30 28 28 28 28 26 26 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 4 7 10 15 22 27 21 22 21 27 30 39 41 29 33 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 3 8 7 5 4 5 3 0 0 0 -3 -2 -2 2 -5 SHEAR DIR 264 213 240 249 253 235 260 235 253 244 272 249 257 239 243 219 218 SST (C) 28.8 28.4 28.8 28.9 28.8 29.6 29.2 29.5 29.3 30.2 29.7 30.0 30.1 30.7 30.6 30.9 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 145 151 153 151 164 157 161 156 171 163 169 170 170 170 171 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 145 151 153 151 161 150 149 140 155 144 146 144 153 151 159 122 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -51.6 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -51.9 -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 9 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 8 10 7 10 6 700-500 MB RH 57 58 55 53 51 46 47 50 51 53 52 56 57 56 56 56 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 17 17 17 17 15 13 10 9 6 7 4 6 4 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 97 79 66 54 53 33 -8 -24 -37 -38 -64 -20 -19 23 22 36 12 200 MB DIV 45 53 75 58 51 34 1 2 -12 9 2 23 18 20 59 41 52 700-850 TADV 9 3 0 3 14 15 13 -5 -5 -1 -3 0 1 2 -3 6 4 LAND (KM) 424 237 110 73 -28 0 28 66 92 45 76 48 33 -70 -111 -86 -187 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.3 17.0 17.8 18.6 19.9 21.3 22.8 23.7 24.8 26.2 27.7 29.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 62.8 64.5 66.3 68.0 69.8 73.0 75.8 78.3 79.9 81.3 82.6 83.3 83.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 20 18 18 18 18 16 14 11 8 9 9 8 7 6 7 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 40 45 92 78 48 53 37 67 50 46 66 48 51 6 6 6 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 22 CX,CY: -20/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 23. 25. 28. 30. 31. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. 1. -1. -3. -7. -9. -13. -18. -21. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -10. -15. -17. -22. -22. -26. -23. -25. -23. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 14. 11. 6. 4. -1. -0. -5. -2. -4. -1. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.6 62.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092020 NINE 07/29/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 7.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.76 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 60.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.40 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 4.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.61 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 238.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.69 2.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.74 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.40 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.82 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 3.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.8% 41.8% 25.6% 12.9% 12.5% 15.2% 13.9% 16.9% Logistic: 18.6% 31.4% 29.2% 11.7% 3.6% 5.2% 2.8% 1.6% Bayesian: 3.1% 0.6% 8.9% 1.4% 0.3% 1.4% 1.3% 0.6% Consensus: 10.1% 24.6% 21.2% 8.7% 5.5% 7.2% 6.0% 6.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092020 NINE 07/29/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092020 NINE 07/29/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 46 49 44 35 38 35 30 28 23 23 18 21 25 26 27 18HR AGO 40 39 42 45 40 31 34 31 26 24 19 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 39 34 25 28 25 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 25 16 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT