* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092020 07/29/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 48 51 54 59 58 56 50 46 41 38 36 37 36 40 36 V (KT) LAND 40 44 48 51 53 40 41 39 34 30 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 45 48 49 39 40 37 33 31 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 8 5 9 9 18 27 20 27 23 35 27 40 33 38 26 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 4 8 5 4 4 1 0 -1 -3 -1 -5 -2 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 228 255 210 216 218 246 245 244 247 246 260 261 263 251 255 223 229 SST (C) 28.5 29.0 28.7 29.1 29.1 28.5 29.0 29.0 29.2 30.1 29.8 29.8 30.1 30.3 30.8 30.8 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 148 155 150 156 156 146 154 153 155 171 165 164 169 170 170 172 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 155 150 156 156 144 148 142 142 153 144 139 142 147 157 161 126 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -51.8 -52.5 -52.7 -53.2 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 8 9 5 700-500 MB RH 57 58 58 54 51 50 44 47 51 54 53 56 53 54 52 55 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 17 17 17 19 16 14 11 9 6 6 5 5 4 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 102 88 70 58 52 36 -2 -26 -47 -50 -69 -7 -22 2 5 32 -11 200 MB DIV 42 45 45 72 64 46 25 13 -1 16 8 22 10 42 17 39 35 700-850 TADV 2 6 0 -2 -2 20 8 -3 -6 0 -2 -1 1 1 0 3 2 LAND (KM) 460 459 239 62 42 -43 70 85 148 49 -68 -68 -52 -31 -113 -91 -87 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.8 16.7 17.5 18.2 19.4 20.9 22.2 23.6 25.0 26.4 27.5 28.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 60.4 62.3 64.1 65.9 67.6 70.9 74.2 76.7 78.6 80.1 81.1 81.8 82.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 21 20 19 18 17 17 15 12 11 9 8 5 5 6 8 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 36 43 44 102 80 35 36 36 78 45 25 23 20 32 6 6 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 22 CX,CY: -20/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 23. 25. 27. 29. 30. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. -1. -3. -7. -10. -14. -18. -22. -23. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -4. -8. -12. -16. -21. -23. -24. -23. -24. -22. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 5. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 14. 19. 18. 16. 10. 6. 1. -2. -4. -3. -4. -0. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.9 60.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092020 NINE 07/29/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 10.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.83 5.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 61.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.40 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.75 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 238.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.69 2.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.76 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.39 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 4.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.5% 48.3% 32.0% 13.3% 12.7% 18.1% 20.5% 19.0% Logistic: 15.3% 27.2% 23.5% 4.2% 1.0% 2.5% 1.9% 1.2% Bayesian: 6.3% 0.6% 10.7% 1.0% 0.5% 5.4% 3.3% 0.7% Consensus: 10.0% 25.4% 22.1% 6.2% 4.7% 8.7% 8.6% 7.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 10.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092020 NINE 07/29/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092020 NINE 07/29/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 44 48 51 53 40 41 39 34 30 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 40 39 43 46 48 35 36 34 29 25 21 22 22 22 22 22 22 12HR AGO 40 37 36 39 41 28 29 27 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 32 19 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT