* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092020 07/29/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 44 47 51 55 56 55 55 56 55 55 54 55 60 60 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 44 47 45 35 40 39 39 40 39 39 38 33 29 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 38 40 42 45 33 34 32 30 30 31 32 34 31 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 7 8 5 9 13 26 26 22 23 21 21 24 26 30 25 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 3 1 1 5 11 4 4 4 1 -1 1 1 2 2 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 132 262 284 260 225 244 238 256 239 244 224 250 226 238 221 234 215 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 29.0 28.8 29.0 28.9 29.5 29.1 29.4 29.2 30.2 29.9 29.7 29.9 30.7 30.6 30.6 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 155 151 155 153 162 155 160 154 170 167 163 167 170 169 167 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 147 155 151 155 153 159 148 150 139 152 147 142 143 154 147 142 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.2 -52.1 -52.0 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -52.0 -51.6 -51.7 -51.4 -51.7 -51.5 -52.2 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 11 8 10 6 10 700-500 MB RH 59 57 57 58 54 46 42 42 44 47 47 45 43 41 42 46 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 19 21 21 20 20 18 16 15 15 13 13 11 13 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR 110 104 97 85 72 62 30 19 3 -19 -25 -26 7 10 32 45 27 200 MB DIV 64 49 39 46 77 62 30 17 -8 2 18 7 24 19 26 27 16 700-850 TADV -8 4 13 6 2 18 24 13 -8 0 1 0 -1 0 -1 4 2 LAND (KM) 471 455 465 277 123 -2 -11 23 22 73 63 36 67 76 -61 -112 -121 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.9 15.5 16.2 16.9 18.4 19.8 20.9 22.4 23.6 24.6 25.8 27.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 58.4 60.4 62.4 64.1 65.8 69.6 72.8 75.4 78.3 80.1 81.0 82.0 83.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 22 20 19 18 19 18 15 14 13 8 7 8 8 7 7 4 2 HEAT CONTENT 42 36 43 42 83 54 54 35 55 47 47 52 46 46 22 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 23 CX,CY: -21/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 25. 28. 31. 34. 35. 36. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -6. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. -16. -14. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 16. 20. 21. 20. 20. 21. 20. 20. 19. 20. 25. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.2 58.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092020 NINE 07/29/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.84 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 49.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.32 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.68 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 194.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.74 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.79 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.39 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 21.1% 14.7% 10.5% 9.8% 12.4% 14.1% 19.9% Logistic: 5.5% 15.3% 11.0% 1.9% 0.5% 1.6% 2.4% 1.7% Bayesian: 1.9% 0.3% 3.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.9% 2.1% 0.5% Consensus: 4.4% 12.2% 9.8% 4.2% 3.5% 5.0% 6.2% 7.4% DTOPS: 2.0% 8.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092020 NINE 07/29/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092020 NINE 07/29/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 40 44 47 45 35 40 39 39 40 39 39 38 33 29 27 18HR AGO 35 34 37 41 44 42 32 37 36 36 37 36 36 35 30 26 24 12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 38 36 26 31 30 30 31 30 30 29 24 20 18 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 26 16 21 20 20 21 20 20 19 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT