* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092020 07/28/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 47 51 57 62 61 59 54 53 48 47 44 43 42 43 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 47 51 57 59 59 57 52 50 41 33 29 27 29 26 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 44 46 51 52 49 45 41 39 38 30 28 27 30 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 7 7 4 13 15 28 18 25 19 29 25 38 34 39 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 0 -1 0 9 9 4 7 3 -2 0 -3 -2 -3 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 82 179 232 260 241 241 233 252 246 248 252 252 248 251 246 251 233 SST (C) 28.0 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.9 29.2 28.6 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.3 29.8 29.2 29.7 29.6 30.0 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 140 146 146 147 153 158 148 152 153 152 157 165 154 162 160 168 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 146 146 147 153 158 144 146 144 140 141 146 132 137 134 140 142 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.0 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -52.2 -52.3 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 11 11 10 10 11 10 10 8 10 700-500 MB RH 61 62 59 61 61 54 50 44 47 49 53 50 50 50 57 60 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 18 19 19 20 21 19 17 14 12 10 9 8 7 6 7 850 MB ENV VOR 99 95 87 80 65 47 30 2 -9 -38 -41 -65 -20 -31 3 -12 15 200 MB DIV 70 59 53 45 41 70 76 7 17 -22 25 9 11 3 48 29 50 700-850 TADV -13 -7 0 3 0 15 28 4 -8 -7 1 -3 -1 2 1 4 -1 LAND (KM) 757 628 564 580 407 0 22 84 118 163 166 -8 -84 -91 -34 22 -4 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.8 15.4 16.0 16.6 18.0 19.5 20.6 21.9 23.3 24.8 26.1 27.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.9 56.8 58.8 60.5 62.3 66.0 69.4 72.3 75.0 77.2 78.8 80.2 81.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 21 20 19 18 18 19 16 14 13 11 10 8 7 6 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 34 33 33 34 37 99 38 45 35 43 46 38 20 20 43 46 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 22 CX,CY: -20/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 19. 22. 25. 27. 30. 32. 32. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 0. -2. -5. -7. -11. -15. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. -2. -5. -10. -13. -17. -19. -20. -20. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 22. 27. 26. 24. 19. 18. 13. 12. 9. 8. 7. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.1 54.9 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092020 NINE 07/28/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.84 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.23 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.64 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 172.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.75 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.39 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 25.2% 15.4% 11.2% 10.1% 13.1% 21.7% 21.4% Logistic: 5.5% 25.1% 15.4% 2.5% 0.8% 2.5% 3.4% 2.0% Bayesian: 2.3% 10.1% 5.6% 0.5% 0.3% 3.0% 4.9% 0.9% Consensus: 4.8% 20.1% 12.1% 4.7% 3.7% 6.2% 10.0% 8.1% DTOPS: 2.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 1.0% 7.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092020 NINE 07/28/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092020 NINE 07/28/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 39 43 47 51 57 59 59 57 52 50 41 33 29 27 29 26 18HR AGO 35 34 38 42 46 52 54 54 52 47 45 36 28 24 22 24 21 12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 39 45 47 47 45 40 38 29 21 17 15 17 DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 29 35 37 37 35 30 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT