* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092020 07/28/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 44 47 51 56 61 70 68 66 64 65 64 66 67 73 73 V (KT) LAND 35 39 44 47 51 56 61 62 46 47 44 46 44 47 48 54 54 V (KT) LGEM 35 39 44 48 52 58 61 64 44 44 44 46 50 56 64 73 82 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 5 3 6 9 6 8 10 13 10 8 6 7 2 8 10 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 1 1 3 8 6 3 5 2 4 3 1 0 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 10 57 161 294 305 215 284 224 268 229 271 234 330 117 19 72 59 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.8 29.1 29.0 28.5 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 145 145 146 150 154 152 144 150 152 152 150 145 148 150 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 142 145 145 146 150 151 145 136 140 139 134 131 124 127 129 143 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.0 -52.2 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 9 9 11 11 10 10 10 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 64 60 61 59 59 57 56 53 52 55 55 59 58 57 53 53 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 19 19 19 19 19 21 17 14 11 10 8 7 5 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 110 108 113 109 98 79 70 65 25 -5 -32 -45 -65 -44 -44 -1 -4 200 MB DIV 69 65 59 62 52 74 59 68 -26 -11 1 23 -15 -1 10 17 12 700-850 TADV -17 -14 -5 4 8 9 23 15 15 0 1 3 0 0 -5 0 -4 LAND (KM) 877 751 599 500 492 316 86 -8 -41 89 168 258 308 348 301 199 47 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.0 14.3 14.7 15.2 16.2 17.2 18.3 19.4 20.7 22.0 23.3 24.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 52.8 54.9 56.8 58.7 60.5 63.6 66.4 68.6 70.7 72.5 74.2 75.2 75.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 20 20 19 18 17 15 13 11 11 10 10 6 6 3 5 5 7 HEAT CONTENT 29 35 38 37 36 41 99 66 35 45 38 49 60 50 44 40 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 27. 29. 31. 31. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 1. -5. -10. -16. -17. -20. -21. -23. -21. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 12. 16. 21. 26. 35. 33. 31. 29. 30. 29. 31. 32. 38. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.5 52.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092020 NINE 07/28/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 6.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.84 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.23 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.33 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.62 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 167.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.77 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.73 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.42 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 34% is 7.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 55% is 10.5 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 25.0% 15.3% 10.9% 9.7% 13.0% 34.3% 54.8% Logistic: 7.5% 28.4% 16.7% 3.5% 1.1% 6.8% 13.6% 17.7% Bayesian: 8.2% 21.9% 9.6% 1.2% 0.7% 12.4% 51.7% 29.3% Consensus: 7.6% 25.1% 13.9% 5.2% 3.8% 10.7% 33.2% 33.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092020 NINE 07/28/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092020 NINE 07/28/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 39 44 47 51 56 61 62 46 47 44 46 44 47 48 54 54 18HR AGO 35 34 39 42 46 51 56 57 41 42 39 41 39 42 43 49 49 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 38 43 48 49 33 34 31 33 31 34 35 41 41 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 29 34 39 40 24 25 22 24 22 25 26 32 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT