* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092019 09/20/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 73 60 49 41 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 85 73 60 49 41 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 85 73 61 51 45 39 36 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 53 51 42 44 41 34 36 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 5 10 4 -1 4 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 210 217 208 203 207 224 235 238 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 24.4 23.0 20.0 17.7 13.9 19.9 17.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 124 102 93 81 76 72 85 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 107 87 81 73 70 69 79 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.2 -52.3 -52.0 -51.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.5 1.2 0.9 0.7 1.4 1.3 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 39 40 44 52 65 61 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 39 34 30 28 28 27 23 22 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 36 17 22 75 111 163 185 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 47 47 65 60 59 67 52 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 26 15 -5 -20 -37 -25 -21 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 705 602 521 445 312 402 933 1587 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.2 40.5 41.7 42.8 43.9 45.3 46.2 47.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 58.4 57.6 56.9 55.4 53.9 48.3 40.7 31.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 14 14 16 18 24 29 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 20 CX,CY: 11/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -8. -11. -17. -24. -32. -40. -47. -51. -55. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -11. -16. -20. -25. -28. -29. -31. -32. -33. -34. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 14. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -4. -7. -7. -10. -17. -22. -24. -26. -28. -28. -29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -12. -25. -36. -44. -57. -73. -85. -94.-100.-104.-106.-110. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 39.2 58.4 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/20/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 46.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.68 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.76 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -1.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.40 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 413.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.51 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/20/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/20/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 0( 10) 0( 10) 0( 10) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 73 60 49 41 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 71 60 52 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 70 62 49 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 67 54 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 NOW 85 76 70 67 66 53 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT