* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092019 09/19/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 76 60 47 36 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 76 60 47 36 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 90 78 66 55 48 39 34 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 56 54 51 46 49 38 41 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 25 10 7 8 1 0 1 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 211 214 221 213 203 208 236 248 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 26.7 23.9 24.8 20.3 16.2 18.4 19.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 118 122 98 105 82 74 81 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 103 103 85 89 74 70 76 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -52.6 -53.3 -53.7 -53.2 -52.9 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 1.2 1.8 1.2 0.4 1.0 1.8 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 43 42 44 46 61 67 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 42 36 30 28 27 26 24 19 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 105 62 35 15 23 79 107 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 52 38 46 61 62 74 55 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 34 27 -10 -38 -26 -38 -59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 830 720 604 537 483 289 637 1323 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.7 39.0 40.3 41.4 42.5 44.2 45.3 46.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 59.3 58.6 58.0 57.1 56.2 52.1 45.1 35.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 14 13 13 15 21 30 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 21 CX,CY: 12/ 17 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -17. -25. -34. -42. -49. -54. -58. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -7. -15. -21. -27. -34. -37. -37. -40. -40. -40. -41. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -5. -9. -11. -14. -20. -30. -32. -34. -36. -37. -37. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -14. -30. -43. -54. -69. -83. -99.-108.-113.-117.-119.-123. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 37.7 59.3 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/19/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 51.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.22 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.61 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.83 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 0.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.38 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 96.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.04 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 462.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.46 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/19/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/19/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 0( 12) 0( 12) 0( 12) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 76 60 47 36 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 73 60 49 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 73 62 47 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 69 54 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 NOW 90 81 75 72 71 56 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT