* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092019 09/19/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 86 69 54 43 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 100 86 69 54 43 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 100 89 75 63 54 42 37 35 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 62 59 55 49 41 31 33 36 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 19 24 8 4 4 1 1 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 211 213 210 215 208 211 225 237 231 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 26.4 26.4 25.7 24.2 20.6 12.0 19.7 17.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 120 119 112 100 84 71 85 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 111 103 101 94 85 75 69 80 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -51.8 -52.6 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.2 0.9 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 42 43 42 42 56 67 68 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 44 40 37 34 32 29 28 22 21 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 123 108 73 55 39 76 105 136 172 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 78 66 33 46 63 58 64 55 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 33 22 15 7 -11 -25 -47 -44 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 925 822 726 626 534 467 409 978 1577 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.0 37.4 38.8 39.9 41.0 42.6 43.9 45.3 47.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 60.8 60.0 59.2 58.6 58.0 55.6 49.7 40.5 31.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 14 12 12 17 28 33 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 4 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 21 CX,CY: 17/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -10. -17. -28. -39. -50. -59. -65. -69. -72. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -9. -21. -29. -35. -41. -41. -40. -38. -36. -34. -33. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -6. -9. -13. -19. -29. -32. -34. -36. -37. -37. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -14. -31. -46. -57. -74. -88.-106.-115.-121.-125.-127.-130. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 36.0 60.8 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/19/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 53.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.48 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.78 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -1.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.40 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 90.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.10 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 541.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.37 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.0% 15.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/19/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/19/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 3( 24) 0( 24) 0( 24) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 86 69 54 43 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 100 99 82 67 56 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 100 97 96 81 70 53 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 79 62 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 64 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 IN 6HR 100 86 77 71 68 60 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT