* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092019 09/19/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 98 80 62 48 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 110 98 80 62 48 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 110 101 88 72 60 45 38 35 35 37 41 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 57 61 55 54 50 42 33 40 33 30 14 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 19 22 10 6 2 -1 0 5 -2 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 215 213 212 214 216 202 215 231 241 230 231 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.0 26.6 26.7 26.7 23.4 19.1 18.7 18.9 16.5 14.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 127 122 122 122 95 80 82 83 76 72 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 115 112 104 102 101 83 74 77 78 72 69 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.9 -51.3 -51.8 -52.4 -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 -52.2 -50.8 -49.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.9 1.3 1.2 1.6 0.8 1.0 3.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 40 42 42 43 46 64 66 65 65 66 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 44 45 41 37 34 28 27 25 21 20 23 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 134 129 109 80 65 48 83 110 172 197 202 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 55 78 50 28 38 49 66 80 66 35 31 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -16 14 36 55 33 -18 -39 -45 -71 -36 -19 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1025 908 822 737 624 486 400 604 1250 1321 809 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.5 36.0 37.4 38.6 39.8 41.8 43.1 44.1 46.4 48.9 51.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 62.9 61.5 60.0 59.6 59.1 57.4 53.4 46.3 36.4 28.3 22.0 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 19 15 12 12 14 21 31 33 27 23 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 7 7 10 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 19 CX,CY: 16/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -18. -30. -44. -56. -68. -77. -82. -86. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -11. -24. -35. -43. -52. -51. -47. -44. -38. -30. -29. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 14. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -4. -7. -13. -19. -24. -32. -35. -32. -33. -33. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -12. -30. -48. -62. -85. -99.-111.-124.-128.-125.-127.-128. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 34.5 62.9 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/19/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 55.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.35 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.78 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -3.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.37 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 91.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.09 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 616.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.29 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0% 17.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/19/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/19/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 7( 34) 0( 34) 0( 34) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 98 80 62 48 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 110 109 91 73 59 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 110 107 106 88 74 51 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 86 63 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 NOW 110 101 95 92 91 68 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 IN 6HR 110 98 89 83 80 69 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT