* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092019 09/19/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 90 77 63 50 31 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 100 90 77 63 50 31 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 100 93 83 70 59 43 36 33 32 33 35 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 47 58 64 56 55 35 31 35 40 33 22 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 12 15 21 7 5 1 0 2 4 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 207 214 215 211 210 208 216 233 238 230 227 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.3 27.0 26.6 26.8 24.0 20.8 14.8 20.8 17.8 15.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 131 127 122 123 98 84 74 88 80 76 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 123 116 111 105 103 84 76 71 82 76 72 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.3 -51.0 -51.5 -52.1 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -50.7 -49.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.7 1.4 1.6 0.7 0.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 39 41 42 43 44 57 68 65 60 70 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 44 44 45 41 38 32 31 29 24 22 24 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 139 134 126 111 86 54 82 114 142 208 201 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 81 53 69 32 38 56 47 78 35 72 30 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -25 -13 24 49 28 0 -15 -25 -64 -61 -14 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1034 1010 915 808 722 547 500 432 886 1433 1068 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.2 34.5 35.8 37.2 38.5 40.5 42.1 43.2 44.4 47.0 50.6 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 65.0 63.3 61.7 60.8 60.0 59.2 56.7 50.7 42.2 33.8 25.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 19 17 15 12 11 17 27 31 32 32 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 15 7 6 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 17 CX,CY: 15/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -11. -20. -32. -43. -52. -60. -64. -67. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -8. -20. -30. -38. -46. -46. -43. -42. -38. -33. -32. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -5. -10. -15. -20. -28. -32. -32. -33. -33. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -10. -23. -37. -50. -69. -82. -92.-106.-113.-113.-114.-116. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 33.2 65.0 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/19/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 56.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.48 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.68 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 11.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.39 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 62.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.38 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 595.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.32 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0% 17.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/19/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/19/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 6( 27) 0( 27) 0( 27) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 90 77 63 50 31 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 100 99 86 72 59 40 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 100 97 96 82 69 50 37 19 19 19 19 19 19 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 77 58 45 27 27 27 27 27 27 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 62 49 31 31 31 31 31 31 IN 6HR 100 90 81 75 72 62 49 31 31 31 31 31 31 IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT