* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092019 09/18/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 99 87 73 60 37 23 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 105 99 87 73 60 37 23 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 105 102 95 83 70 50 38 34 33 33 36 40 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 38 53 62 63 57 45 34 31 38 27 19 10 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 9 10 15 15 4 1 1 2 8 6 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 201 206 215 209 209 216 205 239 233 230 226 216 279 SST (C) 28.5 27.7 27.3 27.0 26.6 27.0 24.6 21.2 18.6 19.4 16.9 14.3 12.4 POT. INT. (KT) 146 136 130 126 121 125 103 88 82 84 77 73 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 122 115 110 104 103 88 80 77 78 73 70 68 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.4 -51.0 -50.8 -51.7 -52.5 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -52.0 -50.1 -49.3 -49.2 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.8 1.8 1.3 0.8 0.4 -0.1 1.3 3.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 37 39 40 39 41 42 49 63 69 66 61 60 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 41 44 45 44 44 35 32 30 27 22 25 28 27 850 MB ENV VOR 122 142 132 120 99 53 49 83 97 171 244 233 246 200 MB DIV 70 68 40 59 49 44 44 70 45 53 53 63 48 700-850 TADV -29 -36 -17 0 34 7 -11 -14 -80 -88 -11 21 6 LAND (KM) 874 996 989 880 787 619 469 457 636 1184 1409 841 511 LAT (DEG N) 32.4 33.6 34.7 36.0 37.3 39.6 41.5 42.6 43.9 45.8 48.6 52.0 55.9 LONG(DEG W) 67.2 65.3 63.4 62.2 61.0 60.0 58.4 54.1 46.0 37.5 29.4 22.6 17.2 STM SPEED (KT) 17 20 17 16 14 12 13 24 31 31 29 26 25 HEAT CONTENT 33 11 14 9 7 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 14 CX,CY: 13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -5. -10. -20. -33. -45. -56. -64. -70. -75. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -8. -20. -32. -41. -51. -50. -45. -42. -37. -31. -26. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -6. -12. -17. -22. -29. -28. -24. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -18. -32. -45. -68. -82. -90.-102.-113.-112.-105.-104. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 32.4 67.2 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/18/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 54.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.42 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.68 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 11.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.40 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 48.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 644.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.26 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/18/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/18/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 10( 34) 0( 34) 0( 34) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 99 87 73 60 37 23 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 105 104 92 78 65 42 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 105 102 101 87 74 51 37 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 82 59 45 37 22 22 22 22 22 NOW 105 96 90 87 86 63 49 41 26 26 26 26 26 IN 6HR 105 99 90 84 81 70 56 48 33 33 33 33 33 IN 12HR 105 99 87 78 72 68 54 46 31 31 31 31 31