* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092019 09/18/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 98 93 84 76 57 44 35 27 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 100 98 93 84 76 57 44 35 27 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 100 102 101 97 91 72 52 40 35 33 33 37 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 35 37 40 51 59 53 42 30 28 38 36 40 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 3 5 10 15 4 5 8 3 6 5 3 SHEAR DIR 204 203 204 207 217 207 217 214 236 238 234 225 230 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.6 27.7 27.4 27.1 27.3 24.6 21.0 16.6 20.7 18.6 15.0 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 148 136 132 127 129 103 86 76 88 83 77 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 130 131 122 117 109 107 88 77 72 82 78 74 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.8 -51.7 -51.4 -51.1 -51.8 -52.7 -53.1 -53.5 -53.7 -53.2 -52.0 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.0 1.6 1.8 1.4 0.5 0.5 -0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 42 39 38 39 41 44 40 49 63 73 69 68 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 37 37 40 40 43 43 39 35 33 28 26 28 38 850 MB ENV VOR 97 103 120 142 133 96 47 32 60 103 158 177 213 200 MB DIV 94 71 68 68 39 54 41 64 62 63 57 78 71 700-850 TADV -25 -32 -21 -41 -15 13 11 3 -17 -57 -90 -100 -57 LAND (KM) 677 762 861 983 997 805 625 476 444 561 1051 1602 762 LAT (DEG N) 31.5 31.9 32.3 33.4 34.5 37.2 39.6 41.7 42.7 43.4 44.4 46.9 50.8 LONG(DEG W) 70.3 68.8 67.4 65.5 63.6 60.8 59.8 57.8 53.7 47.7 40.0 31.0 21.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 16 19 18 15 13 14 19 25 31 36 37 HEAT CONTENT 37 30 34 13 14 12 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 11 CX,CY: 11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -6. -13. -24. -34. -44. -51. -57. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -13. -22. -30. -43. -46. -42. -39. -35. -32. -31. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 0. -5. -8. -15. -20. -18. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -7. -16. -24. -43. -56. -65. -73. -85. -94. -94. -81. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 31.5 70.3 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/18/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 44.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.48 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.69 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.45 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 27.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.72 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 648.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.26 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/18/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/18/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 14( 33) 5( 36) 0( 36) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 98 93 84 76 57 44 35 27 15 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 100 99 94 85 77 58 45 36 28 16 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 100 97 96 87 79 60 47 38 30 18 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 82 63 50 41 33 21 DIS DIS DIS NOW 100 91 85 82 81 62 49 40 32 20 DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 100 98 89 83 80 70 57 48 40 28 DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 100 98 93 84 78 74 61 52 44 32 17 17 17